First strong fall storm system brings wide range of weather

finger lakes weather forecast tuesday october 1 2019 hot humid thunderstorms rain cold front chilly
A potent weather system will push temperatures up today, only to send them crashing down on Wednesday. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Roller Coaster Weather

A warm front pushed through the Finger Lakes overnight associated with a strong weather system that will keep our weather highly variable.

With the front well to our east, much of the Finger Lakes is starting Tuesday sunny and mild. Temperatures should rise in a hurry this morning as southwest winds pump warm, moist air northward. The ample amounts of sunshine should help the atmosphere take full advantage of the incoming warm air.

By the early afternoon, temperatures will be widespread in the 80s. Mid 80s are likely for a large chunk of the Finger Lakes, especially along I-90 and south into Penn Yan, Ithaca, and even Elmira. A few places in Monroe or Wayne county could even get into the upper 80s while higher elevations stick in the low 80s.

Dewpoints will rise into the upper 60s to near 70 degrees, making it feel muggy as well as hot.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move southeast towards the Finger Lakes very late in the afternoon. These storms should weaken as they cross Lake Ontario and move into the region. Still, there will be a small chance for a stronger storm with damaging winds, especially along the Lake Ontario shore.

Additional rounds of rain and thunderstorms are likely overnight, especially after midnight. Some torrential downpours will be possible thanks to the very moist atmosphere. Temperatures will hold in the 70s overnight but will start to fall as the sunrises on Wednesday.

Wednesday will be a very different day than today. On and off periods of rain are expected throughout the day with little to no sunshine.

A cold front will sink south through the region and temperatures should steadily fall through the day. Before noon arrives, 50s will move into the northern Finger Lakes and by dinnertime, much of the region will be struggling to stay much above 50 degrees.

Thursday will start out dry with temperatures rising into the mid and upper 50s. Rain will move back in during the late afternoon as the front lifts back north. Temperatures could sneak into the low 60s Thursday evening before the front falls away again and cold air forces itself back into the region.

Quiet and Cool

A cold high pressure system will move in behind the front Thursday night. Temperatures Friday morning will range through the 40s.

Blustery north winds will blow throughout the day. Without the winds, it would likely be a sunny day. However, the cold air coming over the Great Lakes will keep plenty of low, gray clouds in place across the area. Sunshine, if there is any, would come late in the day as the winds subside.

Once the wind dies down Friday evening, skies will quickly clear and temperatures will plummet. By Saturday morning, most of the region will be down into the 30s with widespread frost. Areas near the lakes will be warmer with lows closer to 40 degrees.

A few of the typically colder valley locations in the Southern Tier and Central New York could even see a freeze with temperatures dropping into the low 30s.

Sunshine will help temperatures warm Saturday morning and it should turn out to be a pleasant, cool fall day. Look for highs to reach the mid 50s with bright, sun-filled skies from start to finish.

Clouds will roll back in for Sunday with some scattered light showers. Temperatures will get a boost from south winds, topping out in the low and mid 60s.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.

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