Warm, then windy, then wet

finger lakes weather forecast monday october 21 2019 warm sunny wind rain tuesday
Monday will be a very enjoyable late October day with mild temperatures and sunshine. Wind will increase overnight with rain moving in on Tuesday. [Photo by Cynthia Smith]

Next Weather System Approaches

The next autumn storm system will roll into the Finger Lakes on Tuesday with another period of windy, rainy weather. Before that arrives, though, Monday will be a wonderful late October day.

Skies are starting mostly clear this morning except in the river valleys of the Southern Tier and Central New York, where fog developed overnight, as usual. That fog will burn off quickly this morning, leaving sunshine throughout the region.

Temperatures vary greatly this morning with everything from mid 30s to upper 40s. Terrain and fog have a significant impact on the temperatures. As the sun rises, temperatures will become more uniform.

High temperatures today will peak in the low and mid 60s thanks to all the sunshine and a south-easterly breeze. Some of the sunshine will be filtered through a deck of thin overcast that will spread from west to east during the afternoon.

Clouds will continue to thicken overnight and wind speeds will increase. Higher elevations will have the strongest gusts, clocking in at over 40 mph at times. Lower elevations will see gusts increase to 25-35 mph. These winds will continue to come from the southeast.

With the clouds and wind, temperatures tonight will drop into the 50s, but no lower.

Skies will be cloudy throughout Tuesday. A few showers will be possible in the morning, but most of the rain will come in the afternoon and evening hours. Several hours of steady rain will be possible with rain amounts between one-half and one inch.

Temperatures will rise to around 60 degrees before the rain arrives, after which it will slide back into the mid and upper 50s. A cold front will move through during the evening with a quick drop into the 40s.

Southeast winds will also continue to increase Tuesday morning, with more widespread gusts near or above 40 mph. During the afternoon, the wind will turn more southernly, then south-westerly. Winds speeds should decline as the rain moves in and especially after sunset Tuesday evening.

The Rest of the Week

The rain will taper off and move east Tuesday night. A morning lake effect rain shower off Lake Erie will be possible along and north of I-90 Wednesday morning, but most of the area should be dry.

Winds will be a bit blustery from the southwest early but should calm down for the afternoon. Skies will be a mix of sun and clouds with clearing by the evening. Temperatures will be cooler behind Tuesday’s system, but will still manage the mid 50s Wednesday afternoon.

South winds will push Thursday’s temperatures back up to near 60 degrees with a mix of clouds and sun. A stray shower may be possible, especially near Lake Ontario, but most areas should be dry again.

That small chance for a shower will be along a moisture-starved but still potent cold front. This front will stall out near or over the Finger Lakes on Friday with thick clouds and some rain showers. Temperatures will be dependent on the location of the front, but Friday should be the coolest day of the week.

An early look at the weekend shows a continuation of cooler temperatures and some spotty showers. A trend towards colder weather is expected for much of the country as we close out October and head into November.

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Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have three young boys and also run a goat milk soap business, Ye Olde Goat Cart. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.