One System Departs
Two low pressure systems will pass to our south over the next three days, spreading rain and possibly snow into the area.
The first of these lows is centered over West Virginia this morning while the second is starting to take shape over Texas.
The Finger Lakes region is on the northern edge of the precipitation from the first low. Thanks to the front that brought the cold rain and snow yesterday, temperatures are warm enough today for everything to fall as rain.
Rain will gradually taper off from west to east this morning and should be mostly out of the region by midday. The rest of the day looks dry but cloudy. The chances for some sunshine late in the day are dwindling, but still possible.
High temperatures today will top out in the low and mid 50s despite winds turning to the north behind the low, as there is no cold pool behind this low.
Some clouds will linger overnight and even into Saturday. The best chance for clouds on Saturday will be across the southern half of the region.
Areas that see sunshine Saturday should rise to near 60 degrees. Mid 50s are more likely where it is cloudier. No precipitation is expected during the day.
Another System Moves In
Rain will reenter the region Saturday night as showers. The rain should increase in coverage and intensity Sunday morning.
The big question is what happens later Sunday as the low redevelops along the East Coast and strengthens. Precipitation will increase over the Finger Lakes and should come down heavily for the afternoon before tapering off slowly Sunday night.
Temperatures may get just cold enough to turn the rain to snow, especially over higher elevations. In the snowiest scenarios, some higher elevations could exceed six inches, with a couple inches in lower elevations. In the least snowy scenario, precipitation stays all rain.
The set up reminds me of April 17-18, 2007, when significant snow fell over a small portion of the region thanks to just cold enough temperatures.
This will be a very tricky forecast to make with a razor-thin difference between no snow and one of the largest late-season accumulations on record. Stay tuned for an update tomorrow and a Snow Report if necessary.
Rain and snow showers will likely linger into Monday before the weather dries out for Tuesday. The next system will target the area late Wednesday into Thursday next week.
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