The Other Side of Spring
A major flip in our weather pattern to warmer weather is underway.
The high pressure system that was overhead is now to the east, while an area of low pressure is developing over the middle of the nation.
A broad southerly flow of warm air between the two systems dominates the eastern half of the country.
Already, clouds ahead of the storm system’s warm front are pushing into the Finger Lakes. These clouds will remain with us through the day.
Despite the lack of sunshine, a steady south wind will propel temperatures into the mid 60s this afternoon.
Rain showers will move in late this afternoon and continue through the evening and overnight. It will not rain the entire time, but a few thundery downpours will be possible after sunset.
With the clouds, rain, and south winds overnight, temperatures will remain in the 50s.
The warm front will push through the region Friday morning with a few more showers early on. These should lift north by the late morning, allowing a few breaks of sunshine during the midday and early afternoon hours.
Warm, moist air will surge north with temperatures pushing into the low 70s and dewpoints rising to the low 60s.
Thunderstorms will start to develop by the mid-afternoon, organizing into small line segments. A few of these could be strong to severe, with damaging winds the primary threat.
The highest chances for severe storms will be through the Southern Tier and into Central New York, but the threat may extend further north and west, depending on how the warm front in the morning evolves.
Flash flooding could also become a concern across the Southern Tier and into Cortland County. Tioga and Cortland county especially seem most prone, with modeled flash flood tolerance of under an inch of rain in one hour.
Second Large System Sunday-Tuesday
The storms will press eastward quickly Friday afternoon, leaving the evening hours dry. Clouds will linger into early Saturday before sunshine increases.
Temperatures Saturday will top out in the low and mid 60s.
The window for clear skies will be small, however, as thin clouds stream in ahead of the next weather system.
Sunday will turn out a bit like today, with clouds thickening through the day before some late rain moves in.
High temperatures should reach into the low and mid 60s, with the warmest weather coming in the northeastern portions of the region, where rain will arrive last.
Rain will increase Sunday evening as the storm system slows down and redevelops to our south. This will keep the rain falling throughout Monday and into Tuesday as well.
Given the current low flash flood tolerance over the southeastern Finger Lakes, and the likelihood of thunderstorms and heavy rain Friday, this system will have to be watched as well for more potentially heavy rain and flooding.
Temperatures will fall into the 50s behind this system for Tuesday but will start to warm right back up again with 70s possible by next weekend.
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Jim Sullivan
Hi, I have told my brother about your post and he has been following you since. He mentioned that he likes the way you forecast the weather. He is an avid fisherman and fishes primarily Keuka. One thing he mentioned that he would really like to see is more detailed forecasts of the winds, wind speeds. I told him I would pass this on. Thanks.
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Hi Jim! Thanks for sharing. Winds are a tricky thing, as they are highly prone to extreme localization with both speed and direction. For a personal example, my house is pretty sheltered from the wind, so my speeds are up to 50% less than wind speeds 100 yards to the west, where there is a large, open field. The surrounding trees and buildings can also shift the winds. I do try to give generalized wind forecasts, focusing on the overall direction and, when significant, the max speeds of the gusts. I’ll keep this in mind and continue to work on the wind forecasts…a year or two ago, I was hardly mentioning wind at all, so it is all an evolution of what works best for the most people. Thanks for passing along his suggestion!