Change in the Weather
Our weather pattern is undergoing a shift in the wake of last night’s cold front.
A second cold front will move through this afternoon to complete the transition.
Before the front arrives, clouds this morning will gradually burn off, leaving a period of mixed skies. Temperatures will work their way into the upper 60s with a few places hitting 70 degrees.
Scattered showers and maybe a rumble of thunder will move through during the afternoon. Most, but not all places should see at least a little rain. A few heavier, but brief downpours will be possible.
Cool air will be reinforced behind the front with temperatures falling into the low and mid 40s by Sunday morning. Sunday itself will be cloudy with a few spits of drizzle and highs struggling to reach the mid 50s. A little sun will be possible late.
Sunday night still looks cold with a few isolated frosty pockets in the Southern Tier and Central New York. Lows there will dip into the upper or even mid 30s. The rest of the Finger Lakes should be at or slightly above 40 degrees.
Scattered showers will pop up on both Monday and Tuesday. On Monday, eastern areas are more prone to some rain, while on Tuesday, it will be areas further west. Temperatures will be working back up, with highs in the low 60s Monday and mid 60s Tuesday.
Wednesday will be a day to watch as some thunderstorms may be possible. The greater threat will likely end up to our south, but it is too early to be certain. Finally, by the end of the week, dry, mild weather will return.
Friday Forecast Verification
As I did a couple weeks ago, I’d like to look back on yesterday’s severe weather event and analyze my forecast.
Both Thursday and Friday morning, I called for scattered severe thunderstorms with a caveat that an even lesser event was very possible. Damaging winds were the primary threat, though I again increased the hail chances at the end, just as I did in our mid-May event.
Our area was placed on the edge of a severe thunderstorm watch and six severe thunderstorm warnings included at least part of the Finger Lakes region. No tornado or flood alerts were issued locally, as was expected.
As of Saturday morning, four wind reports were recorded by the National Weather Service in the Finger Lakes Weather forecast area. Trees were reported down in Rochester, Auburn, and Dundee, while the fourth report was a measured gust of 59 mph in Owego. A wind gust is considered severe at 58 mph. No hail was reported.
Whether four reports over the entire region can be called “scattered” or should be labeled “isolated” can be debated, but the fact the reports straddled the same line as my forecast can be viewed as a positive verification.
The over-forecasting of hail in both this event and the May 15th event sticks out to me. I will investigate this bias further with a historical analysis of hail in the Finger Lakes and some further self-education on hail forecasting, which admittedly has never been as high of an interest to me as researching tornadoes and damaging winds.