Early Week Weather
High pressure over the Ohio River Valley this morning will push southeast, opening our region back up to warmer temperatures while the jet stream remains overhead.
This set up will bring at least the chance for a few thunderstorms over the next few days, but uncertainties abound.
To start with, today will be a quiet day under the influence of the nearby high pressure. Skies will be a mix of sunny periods and cloudier ones. Generally speaking, the morning will be cloudier than the afternoon.
A few spits of rain will be possible, mostly along and east of I-81 this morning. By far the majority of the Finger Lakes region will remain dry.
Winds will remain from the northwest today until shifting to the west-southwest late in the day. Temperatures will be warmer than yesterday, but still noticeably below average with highs in the low and mid 60s.
Tomorrow is looking cloudier as some unsettled weather in the jet stream approaches. A few brief showers will be possible throughout the daytime hours.
Nonetheless, southwest winds will help temperatures into the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. The I-81 corridor will be cooler with highs in the mid 60s.
The forecast confidence drops off by late Tuesday as a disturbance drops southeast from Canada. This system may touch off thunderstorms north of the Great Lakes in Canada. Whether or not these storms develop is one question, and the follow-up question is how long they survive as they move southeast toward the Finger Lakes.
Most likely, we will see an increase in rain with some thunder Tuesday evening. The chance remains for more robust storms with frequent lightning and wind gusts.
The second period of uncertainty comes Wednesday. Once again, our weather will depend on upstream thunderstorm development, this time over Minnesota and Wisconsin Tuesday evening.
By Wednesday these storms will approach our region in a weakened state. The timing will be right for redevelopment and intensification, but the track of the storms is uncertain.
Mostly, the models have been placing the thunderstorms over Pennsylvania, but I’ve seen enough model runs where they clip the southern portion of our region to doubt this exact placement.
Temperatures Wednesday will also depend on the track of any storms but should top out somewhere near 70 degrees.
Stay tuned for updates on both of these uncertain potentials.
Quieter Second Half of the Week
The weather pattern will quiet down behind Wednesday’s storm-triggering weather system.
Thursday looks to be a rather sunny day, though some thin clouds will also be present. Temperatures will reach a high in the mid 70s after starting the day in the mid 50s.
Friday will be a bit warmer and cloudier. Still, sunshine should mix with the clouds and no precipitation is expected at this time. Highs will push into the low 80s.
A cold front will move through early Saturday morning with some scattered showers. Those showers may linger into the early afternoon, but eventually, the sun should come out. Of course, this far in advance, those timings could still change.
Temperatures will retreat again behind this front, though not as far as they did this past weekend. Highs Saturday should be in the low 70s with nighttime temperatures in the 50s.
Sunday will then turn partly cloudy with highs in the mid 60s. Temperatures will bounce right back again and it could be rather hot for a couple days next week.
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