A mostly quiet weather day is expected today before widespread rain moves in overnight.
Sunshine will mix with fair-weather clouds throughout the day. Very few areas will see any precipitation, but a few widely isolated showers will be possible.
These will be most likely east of I-81, but none of the region is guaranteed a completely dry day today. Even if it does rain, anything that falls will be light and brief.
Temperatures will be a couple degrees warmer than yesterday, with more low 80s and fewer mid 70s.
Southwest winds through the morning will become northwest this afternoon. Winds speeds will be near or under 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
The first part of tonight will be quiet, but after midnight, the remains of a thunderstorm complex will move into the region. Especially over western areas, there may still be some occasional lightning and gusty winds with the activity.
Widespread, steady rain should fall during the hours leading up to and after dawn as this complex tracks eastward.
Rainfall amounts are tricky to nail down and will depend on the exact track and evolution of the storms and any heavier downpours. Many areas should see well over a quarter-inch, and some areas could see over an inch.
Getting an inch of rain over several hours would certainly help the dry conditions but would not erase the 30-day rainfall deficits, which average between 2-4 inches across the region.
Once the rain moves out by mid-morning Saturday, the question will become whether or not any new activity fires up in the afternoon. I do expect a few more showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms, but it does not seem likely that widespread severe weather will occur.
I’ll have an update of some sort tomorrow morning.
Near Average Temperatures
Our weather will remain unsettled into Sunday as the parent weather system responsible for Saturday’s rain is slow to move out.
Sunshine will mix with clouds and a few scattered afternoon showers and storms will pop up. These will probably be similar in nature to the storms we had yesterday, with generally light, brief rain and only a few rumbles of thunder here and there.
Temperatures on Sunday should generally be in the upper 70s which is where the average high for late June is.
These temperatures will continue well into next week, mixing with some low 80s from time to time. Warmer weather may be possible later in the week and into next weekend.
A few more scattered afternoon showers will be possible Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday next week has the best chance for rain, however. Rainfall amounts still look minor, though.
Late next week, high pressure should build in, keeping the weather quiet.
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