Pattern Shifts
High pressure building into the Great Lakes has nudged the low pressure system over New England to the east.
This shift in the pattern will help temperatures increase today will the chances for rain will be nearly zero.
Between the high and the low, winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph today. Usually this would mean cooler weather, but a pool of warm air has ridden up and over the high, coming through the Midwest and into eastern Canada.
With the removal of the low and its associated bubble of relatively cooler air, this warmer air will move in to take its place.
Temperatures today will range from just above 90 degrees in the northern Finger Lakes to the upper and mid 80s for most of the region. A few higher elevations on the western and eastern fringes of the region may stick to the low 80s.
Skies will be sunny with some fair-weather clouds, but no rain is expected.
Some energy in the atmosphere will get caught up in the northwest flow and trigger some thunderstorms over Canada today. A few of these may clip the northeastern Finger Lakes after midnight tonight as some scattered showers.
Friday will also have some scattered showers and storms as this energy passes through. Most of the activity looks like it will happen east of I-81. If any storms do manage to develop further west in our region, there will be a small chance for some gusty winds.
Temperatures will not be as warm tomorrow since the warm pool will have moved on and cooler air will filter in from the northwest. Still, highs should reach the low and mid 80s.
Heat Wave
For the most part, July 4th on Saturday will be a sunny, warm day. There will be a small chance for shower or storm in the midday hours, mostly across the Southern Tier.
Widespread highs in the mid 80s are likely with less variation than normal across the region.
Sunday should have plenty of sunshine as warm air invades the region and kicks off a heat wave. High temperatures on Sunday will range from a couple degrees below 90 to a couple degrees above. Most places should be at or above 90 degrees.
Monday will be very similar with ample sunshine and highs around or above 90 degrees. The heat will not stop there, though.
Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday should all have widespread 90s throughout the Finger Lakes region. The typically warmer areas, such as the I-90 corridor, urban areas, and Susquehanna Valley between Corning and Binghamton, should reach the mid 90s.
Some afternoon showers and thunderstorms may try to develop on Wednesday and Thursday. A better chance for rain will come on Friday for what looks to the final day of the heat wave. Cooler weather should move in next weekend.
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