Temperatures jump today; Heat waits for the weekend

Warm Air Returns

High pressure over New England has placed the Finger Lakes back in the flow of warm air.

For today, the high will still be close enough to keep our weather tranquil and humidity levels in check.

Ample sun will shine from start to finish with just a few small fair weather clouds. No rain is expected from any of these clouds.

Light and variable winds will eventually turn to the south, but wind speeds will remain at or below 5 mph.

All of this will add up to highs in the mid 80s for much of the region, with a few higher elevations sticking in the low 80s. Dewpoints will be in the 50s, so the humidity will not be noticeable.

Skies will be clear early tonight, allowing for a chance to see Comet Neowise low on the northwestern horizon. The window of opportunity will be small though as a deck of thin clouds will work in late this evening and through the overnight.

Thursday and Friday will both have chances for rain. Showers and a few rumbles of thunder will move in late Thursday afternoon and evening with a second round of rain and thunder Friday morning.

I do not expect any severe weather for this set up, though the Storm Prediction Center has the Finger Lakes in its lowest severe level risk category for Thursday.

Temperatures both Thursday and Friday should be in the low and mid 80s, though ultimately the rain’s progression will dictate how warm it gets.

Hot Weekend

By the weekend, a favorable pattern for hot weather will set up as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic Ocean.

Heat and humidity will be pumped northward by a broad southerly flow on the backside of this high.

For Saturday, skies will be sunny with a few fair weather clouds, similar to today. South and southwest winds will blow lightly.

Highs will be at or above 90 degrees for all but the higher elevations. Dewpoints will be in the 60s, making it feel a bit muggy.

Temperatures will have a hard time getting below 70 degrees Saturday night, getting Sunday off to a running start. All of the region should reach 90 degrees and mid or even upper 90s will be possible through much of the region.

There is a small bit of uncertainty in Sunday’s forecast as an impulse in the atmosphere approaches. Currently, the models keep this feature out of our region until Sunday night, but an earlier arrival would introduce showers and thunderstorms to the forecast, which would likely keep temperatures from reaching their full potential.

Monday and Tuesday could also be impacted by this feature if it stalls out, but the current projections keep it south of our region.

Temperatures in that scenario would still be plenty warm, but not quite as hot, with highs in the 85-90 degree range.

The warm weather should eventually retreat next week as a cold front moves through sometime during the mid-week timeframe.