A meandering weather system will take its time moving through our region over the next two days, bringing several chances for rain and thunderstorms.
Already, at 7 AM Wednesday, an area of rain and some embedded thunder was lifting northeast into Western New York. Out ahead of this rain, most of the Finger Lakes region is locked into clouds with just a few sunny breaks.
The clouds will limit our heating before the rain moves in for the late morning and early afternoon hours. This, in turn, will put a limit on the development of thunderstorms within the rain.
Furthermore, the winds aloft are only marginally supportive of storm strengthening and organization. Without these two key ingredients, it will be difficult to get strong thunderstorms with this first batch of precipitation.
The one exception may be over the eastern Southern Tier, close to the NY-PA state line. This area is seeing ample sunshine this morning and may get some stronger thunderstorm development.
After a break in the precipitation for an hour or two, a second round of showers and storms may pop up over Western New York in the mid-afternoon. A cluster or two of storms will then move into the Finger Lakes for the late afternoon with a limited window for severe storms. A case or two of strong thunderstorm winds will be possible.
Despite the Storm Prediction Center having us in their level 2 threat (Slight Risk), my feeling is there will be few, if any severe thunderstorms in our region, making this more in line with a Level 1 – Isolated threat, if even that.
Outside of the showers and maybe-thunderstorms today, skies will be cloudy this morning and mixed this afternoon. Highs will probably struggle to break 80 degrees in most areas. South and southwest winds will blow at 5-10 mph.
Overnight, some areas of fog may develop in areas that see rain later in the day. Otherwise, it will be partly cloudy, warm, and muggy with overnight lows around 70 degrees.
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible again Thursday, popping up in the early to mid-afternoon.
Tomorrow’s storms will stay cellular, that is, they will not coalesce into clusters or lines. Rainfall will be more feast-or-famine than today as a result. An isolated stronger storm will be possible with gusty winds the primary threat.
This system will finally pull away on Friday, but not before a few more morning showers.
Friday will then trend drier and sunnier as high pressure begins to nose in. High temperatures will be comfortable, peaking within a couple degrees on either side of 80 degrees.
This high pressure system should retain control of our weather through the weekend.
Saturday and Sunday both look sunny and dry with temperatures on the rise.
Morning lows Saturday will start the day off in the low and mid 60s. Afternoon highs will be in the mid and upper 80s. Sunday will see lows in the upper 60s with highs around 90 degrees.
Low pressure will track through the Great Lakes and into eastern Canada early next week. This system will push a cold front through our region early Monday with some showers lingering into early Tuesday.
After a dry Tuesday afternoon, wrap-around moisture will bring a few more showers on Wednesday.
Highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the 80s, but the rest of next week looks like 70s to close out July.