Hot, and then Not
A stalled out frontal boundary will snake through the region today, keeping the weather variable and less certain than normal.
The front is marked by light north winds to the north and light south winds to its south. Based on current observations, at 7 AM this morning, the front was extending from roughly Dansville to Canandaigua to Syracuse.
Temperatures are uniformly in the low 60s to start, but areas south of the front will see much more substantial warming compared to areas to the north.
Thin clouds are also in the neighborhood this morning, resulting from a complex of rain and thunderstorms over Michigan. This rain should track northeast into Canada and weaken, much like yesterday morning’s rain did over Western New York.
The front should make its way a bit further north this morning, opening much of the region up to temperatures in the 80s. Many areas should push into the mid 80s by the early afternoon. The front will then push back southeast, dropping temperatures in the 70s and even 60s later in the afternoon. Areas that stay south of the front will remain in the 80s.
The 6 PM projection from the European model has 82º in Elmira, 72º in Penn Yan (after reaching a high of 86º a few hours earlier), and just 67º in Rochester.
Rain is generally not expected with this front, and skies should trend sunnier, not cloudier. However, the models did a very poor job with precipitation yesterday, so at least a few scattered showers or thunderstorms should not be totally ruled out, especially across the northern half of the region.
The front will make it about as far as a Wellsville-Corning-Ithaca-Cortland line this evening before it stops, then meanders back north overnight. By the morning, it should be back near the shore of Lake Ontario.
Then we do the whole thing over again on Wednesday underneath mostly sunny skies. The temperature differences Wednesday afternoon may not be quite as large as today, but northern areas should still drop back into the 70s after initially pushing well into the 80s.
The front will bounce north one final time Wednesday night before a stronger push of colder air moves the front south for good Thursday morning.
With a morning frontal passage, only a few scattered showers are expected across the area.
Temperatures will start Thursday by quickly warming through the 70s to near 80 degrees by the late morning. The afternoon will be a steady drop back through the 70s and into the 60s by 6 PM.
Widespread 50s are likely by Friday morning. Sunny skies are likely on Friday with highs in the upper 60s.
Friday night’s temperatures should fall into the upper 40s and low 50s, but temperatures will start to recover on Saturday. Southeast winds will warm the Rochester area into the low 80s while the Southern Tier and Central New York remain in the low and mid 70s.
Skies will be mixed on Saturday, while Sunday will bring a chance for some needed rainfall. Temperatures behind Sunday’s system should stick somewhere in the 65-75 degree range for most of next week.
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