Mostly Light Rain Amounts
A large dip in the jet stream over the Great Lakes will continue to keep our weather mixed for the next several days.
Generally dry conditions are expected this morning as nighttime lake effect showers diminish. Periods of sun and clouds will alternate through the morning and into the afternoon.
Temperatures will rise into the low or perhaps mid 60s. The daytime heating should lead to an increase in shower activity during the second half of the afternoon.
The showers that develop will remain scattered and many areas will see little to no rain. Individual showers could have some briefly moderate rain but should not last long or produce high rainfall amounts.
After sunset, the showers should taper off with the loss of their daytime heating fuel.
Winds today will be a bit gusty from the southwest this morning but will turn more westerly with lower wind speeds this afternoon.
Clearing skies this evening will yield to increasing clouds after midnight, though areas west of Seneca Lake may stay less cloudy compared to areas further east. Widespread 40s are expected tonight with most areas within a couple degrees of 45 degrees. The western Southern Tier will be in the low 40s, or even upper 30s if it stays mostly clear.
A weak system will lift northeast along the Atlantic coast Friday morning. Areas east of Cayuga Lake may get clipped by some light rain from this. Northwest winds behind the system will bring some lake enhanced showers into the area Friday afternoon. The closer to Lake Ontario, the better chance of seeing rain.
High temperatures tomorrow will be near or just below 60 degrees for most. Again, the western Southern Tier will be cooler, with highs in the mid 50s.
Weekend Weather & Beyond
Another weak piece of atmospheric energy will pass by early Saturday, this time to the north. Scattered showers will be triggered, especially near Lake Ontario. Most of the rain should end by the early afternoon.
Further south, skies may be less cloudy to start Saturday, leading to cooler temperatures. Areas along the NY-PA state line could drop into the upper 30s with low 40s throughout the Southern Tier.
Highs on Saturday will stay below 55 degrees for most areas as cool air gets reinforced behind the morning’s system. Skies will become a mix of sun and clouds before turning mostly clear for much of the night.
Frost will be a concern for Sunday morning with temperatures away from the lakes falling well into the 30s.
Many of these areas have already had a killing freeze, so the National Weather Service considers the growing season over. No frost or freeze alerts will be issued for the Southern Tier as a result, but if you still have sensitive plants, you will need to protect them.
Clouds will increase through Sunday and some showers may arrive late in the day or for the evening. High temperatures will get a small boost from southerly winds with highs returning to about 60 degrees.
Rain showers will increase for Monday, though there are still major uncertainties about the strength and path of this weather system.
Temperatures will remain steady throughout next week with highs generally sticking in the 50s or low 60s. Another chance for rain will come later in the week.
Warmer weather may start to make a comeback by next weekend with an increasing chance of highs well into the 60s or even reaching 70 degrees.