High Pressure Takes Control
Low pressure associated with yesterday’s rain and thunderstorms is pulling away from New England. Meanwhile, a large high pressure system is digging into the Ohio Valley from the northern Plains.
Northwest winds between these two systems will still be on the blustery side today, though not nearly as strong as yesterday. The best chance for 30+ mph wind gusts will be along and east of a Syracuse-Ithaca line during the midday hours.
Skies will be rather cloudy today, though breaks of sunshine are likely from time to time. Sunshine will be especially possible during the midday and early afternoon.
A small disturbance in the jet stream will drop southeast late this afternoon and evening, bringing some new clouds and a few scattered showers, especially for the northern half of the region.
Temperatures today will be held down by the clouds and wind with highs in the low to mid 50s. The clouds tonight, and a developing west-southwest wind, will keep temperatures from falling too far. Friday morning lows should mostly be in the low and mid 40s, though the western Southern Tier may dip into the upper 30s.
By Friday, the high will pass through the Mid-Atlantic region. This will bring lots of sunshine to our area and will turn winds to the southwest and eventually south. The sunshine and wind will push temperatures into the mid 60s. The I-81 Corridor may end up cooler.
Wind speeds Friday will be around 5 mph with gusts peaking around 20 mph. Some hazy wildfire smoke may push in late in the afternoon with a deck of thin clouds during the evening. Winds will increase Friday evening with gusts over higher elevations approaching 30 mph.
Saturday will be off to a warm start with mid and upper 50s for most of the region, but 60s northwest of Geneva. Winds will turn back to the southwest and increase with 30-40 mph gusts. At least partial sunshine is expected, helping push temperatures into the mid 70s.
Late in the day, a cold front will drop south. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible, and like yesterday, some could contain damaging winds and small hail. This will be something to watch closely over the next 48 hours.
Medium Range Forecast Remains Messy
The forecast remains uncertain, starting Sunday as the front presses south and dissipates and the remains of Hurricane Delta work northeast.
Sunday’s weather will be influenced by both features. As the front moves south, cooler air should move back into the Finger Lakes. How cool it gets depends on the position of the front and the incoming clouds from Delta.
Most likely, highs end up in the upper 50s and low 60s on Sunday. Temperatures could end up a bit cooler, or a bit warmer, depending on how everything unfolds.
A few showers could also start to work in late in the afternoon or evening if Delta tracks far enough north. The best chance for rain will come later Sunday night and into Monday.
The models are still split on where the rain from Delta ends up. Some keep most of the rain south and bring just a few showers into the area. Others bring heavy, soaking rain to the Finger Lakes.
The forecast for Delta should continue to consolidate as the storm moves north through the Gulf of Mexico on track for landfall in Louisiana tomorrow afternoon.
Even if Delta passes to our south, an incoming front and low pressure system on Tuesday should bring rain to the region. However, it seems unlikely that there is a scenario where we see two days of significant rain, though there is a small chance we miss out both Monday and Tuesday.
There will be another chance for rain later next week in the Thursday timeframe. There is poor agreement on the models with this feature, and given that it is still a week away, there is not much to consider at this time.
Temperatures throughout next week look to remain mostly in the 60s, though this too is uncertain and will depend on how these other systems evolve.
There are stronger indications of a significant weather system late next weekend or early next week, which could bring heavy precipitation to the region. Cool air will build in behind this for a chilly pattern as we head into the latter parts of October.
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