Chilly rain followed by frosty night

finger lakes weather forecast friday october 16 2020 rain cold frost advisories
Chilly showers will gradually dissipate tonight before clearing skies bring widespread frost and freeze conditions overnight. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

Cold Air Intensifies

The cold front that moved through yesterday afternoon has stalled out over New England and is dissipating.

Rain behind the front continues to fall lightly across the Finger Lakes and will continue this morning. These showers will gradually become more and more scattered until they finally dissipate all together late this afternoon.

The areas most likely to see rain showers late into the afternoon will be east of Cayuga Lake. Meanwhile, some late day sunshine is likely to the west of Keuka Lake.

Temperatures range through the 40s this morning and will have a hard time rising much today. Some areas, again mostly in the eastern Finger Lakes, may even see temperatures drop further today. The best chance for getting to or above 50 degrees will be between I-90 and Lake Ontario.

Clearing skies will take over this evening for the entire region and temperatures will quickly tumble. Most areas should get into the low and mid 30s, resulting in widespread frost and freeze conditions. Even areas that are typically warmer could see patchy frost. On the flip side, pockets of upper 20s are possible, mostly across the western Southern Tier.

Frost Advisories are in place tonight for all counties that are still considered to have an active growing season. If your county is NOT under a Frost Advisory, it is only due to technicalities.

In fact, the counties that do not have an advisory because their growing season is considered over have a *greater* chance for a freeze tonight and should have more widespread frost.

Everyone with sensitive vegetation should act to protect it tonight, regardless of location and the presence of frost advisories.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast friday october 16 2020
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Weekend Rebound

Temperatures will work their way back up this weekend, though it will not get nearly as warm as it was yesterday before the front.

Saturday will be sunny throughout the day with some midday and afternoon fair weather clouds mixing in. Winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.

The sunshine and southwest wind will help temperatures recover from the frosty start. Look for highs mostly in the mid 50s, with low 50s in higher elevations.

Skies will start clear Saturday evening, but thin clouds will move in overnight. A south wind will also pick up, with gusts increasing to over 20 mph after midnight.

Temperatures will initially fall Saturday night to the upper 30s and low 40s, but then will hold steady or rise as the clouds and wind move in. The Rochester area could even approach 50 degrees by dawn Sunday.

Clouds will remain in place throughout Sunday, though some sun may shine through them from time to time. A stray shower cannot be ruled out in the afternoon.

Winds will continue to increase with gusts around 30 mph by the afternoon. Higher elevations south of Syracuse and in the Bristol Hills could see gusts around 35 mph.

Temperatures on Sunday will mostly be in the mid 50s, with a few upper 50s along and north of the Thruway.

The models are trending rainier for next week as a front moves back and forth over the region. Late Monday through Tuesday especially looks to have the best chance for rain, though showers could linger most of the week.

Temperatures will depend on the position of the front and any rain. Highs now look as though they will stick to the 50s through Tuesday but could still jump into the 60s to near 70 later in the week.

There are hints of an even colder weather pattern setting up for next week, though how intense the cold will get is questionable this far in advance. Be wary of premature, hyped-up predictions.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.