Tuesday-Wednesday Weather
The weather today across the Finger Lakes will continue to be cloudy with a chance for showers, though it will not be as rainy as yesterday.
There are a few lake enhanced showers dotting the region this morning, but most areas are starting out dry. The morning showers should become less and less as the morning transitions into the afternoon. Clouds will remain thick though, with few if any brief breaks of sun.
Winds will primarily be from the west and northwest at 5-10 mph. Gusts will stay under 20 mph.
High temperatures this afternoon will range from the mid 40s in the higher elevations to around 50 degrees near Cayuga, Seneca, and Keuka Lakes, as well as in the Corning-Elmira-Owego area.
During the second half of the afternoon, a small piece of energy will move in, triggering another round of showers. The rain could become widespread for a couple hours early this evening. The rain should quickly move east, leaving just a few scattered showers for the overnight.
Clouds will linger overnight, keeping lows near or slightly above 40 degrees.
Sunshine will increase on Wednesday. This will be the only sunshine we see this week until Saturday and perhaps early Sunday.
Temperatures will rise into the low 50s for most, though higher elevations may end up just short of 50 degrees.
Skies will start clear Wednesday evening, but clouds will start to work in from the south after midnight. Most areas should end up in the mid and upper 30s, but overnight temperatures along the lake shores will be closer to or above 40 degrees.
Major Storm Clips the Finger Lakes
Over the next 48 hours, a large storm system over the Southern Plains will creep eastward while Hurricane Zeta makes landfall along the Louisiana coast. By Thursday morning, the two systems will be a single, large storm system, though both lows will remain distinct from one another.
Rain is still expected to make it into the Finger Lakes Thursday afternoon, though a near miss to the south is still within the range of possibilities.
Assuming the rain does make it this far north, steady moderate rain will develop Thursday afternoon and continue into Thursday night. Some of the rain could be locally heavy, but the widespread, heavy rain should remain far to the south over the Mid-Atlantic.
As the first low moves out into the Atlantic early Friday, the second low will strengthen along the Mid-Atlantic coast. The location and degree of strengthening will determine how our weather Friday unfolds.
Colder air will work into the storm system, aided by high pressure over Canada. This should turn the rain to snow Thursday night. If the coastal low is far enough northwest, snow will intensify over our region Friday morning before gradually tapering off Friday afternoon.
Should the low be a bit further away, the window for snow would be smaller.
There is a potential for accumulations, especially over the higher elevations of the Southern Tier and Central New York. Early season snows are highly dependent on elevation, and this should be no different.
A snowiest case scenario at this point looks like a moderate accumulation at higher elevations, a slushy inch or two at lower elevations, and little to nothing accumulating north of the northern end of the Finger Lakes. In a least snowy case, a few flakes may mix in before precipitation ends, or everything stays south altogether.
Either way, temperatures Friday will not get out of the 30s, and a very cold night is likely Friday night as skies clear. Temperatures will easily fall into the low and mid 20s, but teens will be likely in any areas that do see accumulating snow.
Saturday will be mostly sunny, but chilly, with highs in the upper 30s and low 40s. Evening temperatures will settle in the 30s, but a developing south wind and some clouds will prevent it from getting too much colder.
Some rain showers may move back in later Sunday as temperatures bounce back to the upper 40s. Showers will continue into Monday, possibly mixing with some snow showers as cold air moves in on the backside of that system.
More seasonable temperatures look possible later next week and beyond, with highs returning to the 50s.
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