Areas of Light Snow
There will be a couple of chances for light snow today and into Friday as cold air intensifies over the region.
Snow associated with a disturbance to the southeast moved in overnight and still lingers this morning. I strongly suspect that Lake Ontario is contributing some extra moisture and support for this snow. Additional accumulations should remain under an inch with the snow dissipating this morning.
A few lake effect flurries are also ongoing close to the shore of Lake Ontario. Through the morning, these should expand southward into the Finger Lakes. Then, this afternoon, the snow showers will move off Lake Ontario and dissipate as they drift southward.
Accumulations should be less than or around an inch for most areas.
Outside of these snow showers, a few glimpses of sunshine will be possible. Temperatures will remain in the low and mid 20s for one more day before colder air moves in.
A few more flurries will be possible overnight before winds turn from the north to the northeast. Lake effect snow showers will head west, mostly falling west of I-390 Friday morning before dissipating for the afternoon.
Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly clear outside of the lake effect tonight into Friday. Morning lows may slip below zero for the I-81 corridor, while most other areas remain in the single digits. Highs on Friday will be in the mid and upper teens.
Mostly clear skies Friday night will send many areas below zero. Mainly only areas influenced by the warming effects of the lakes will stay above zero. Saturday’s highs will again reach the mid and upper teens.
Trio of Weather Systems
Clouds will increase on Saturday with snow arriving by the evening hours. Snow will increase overnight, coming down steadily. With temperatures holding in the teens, the snow will be fluffy and quick to accumulate.
The snow will wind down early Sunday morning with a widespread 3-6 inches of fresh powder. The remainder of Sunday will be cloudy but quiet with highs in the mid 20s.
The main focus in next week’s weather will be a pair of storm systems that will take similar paths from the Ohio Valley to either near or directly over our region. Both of these low pressure systems look on the stronger side and will need to be monitored for impactful weather.
The first of these systems is due Monday night or early Tuesday. Precipitation is likely throughout Tuesday, most likely falling as snow, or transitioning from snow to ice. Model trends have been for more snow and less ice, but it is far too early and far too close of a call to have any confidence that trend will hold.
The second system will be hot on its heels, arriving during the daytime hours on Thursday. Being a week away, the uncertainties focus on whether this storm will materialize. There is good support for it on the models now, but trends will need to be monitored.
With a projected path of the low pressure center somewhere in our vicinity, all precipitation types are easily in play.
With both of these systems, beware of premature hype and continue to monitor for more details.
Temperatures next week will ultimately depend on the tracks of these two systems, but should generally be a bit warmer than this week.
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