Cooler weather moves in for an extended stay

finger lakes weather forecast wednesday may 5 2021 cloudy rain cool cold front
Additional rain showers are likely today as low pressure passes by with cooler air settling in behind the low. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

Temperatures Drop

Low pressure last night has caused a front to slide just east of the Finger Lakes region this morning.

A second low is moving along this front through the Mid-Atlantic. An area of showers associated with that low will move into our area for the late morning and midday hours.

finger lakes weather wednesday may 5 2021 10 am radar temperature 3pm update
3 PM Update. Rain showers will exit the Finger Lakes over the next couple hours, leaving chilly air and some pockets of drizzle for the evening. Click to enlarge.

Roughly the eastern half of the region should see these showers, while rain further west will be limited to a few spotty showers.

Showers will linger into the early afternoon before departing to the northeast. Skies will remain mostly cloudy for the rest of the day, with just a few brief glimpses of sunshine here and there.

Northwest winds will increase to around 10 mph as the low passes by this afternoon. These wind speeds will continue through the overnight. Gusts will remain under 30 mph.

Temperatures are starting today near or just above 50 degrees. Highs will be just a couple degrees higher during the late morning and midday hours. Behind the rain, as the northwest winds increase, afternoon temperatures will slowly retreat.

Early this evening, 40s will become widespread. Lingering cloud cover throughout the night will keep temperatures close to 40 degrees, but if any predawn clearing takes place, upper or even mid 30s could develop.

Most likely, clouds will linger into Thursday morning and gradually dissipate. Thereafter, sun will mix with some clouds for the rest of the day. Northwest winds will persist, holding temperatures to a high in the low and mid 50s.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast wednesday may 5 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Staying Chilly

The next weather system will be a slow mover on Friday. It will take most of the day for precipitation to traverse from the western parts of the Finger Lakes region to the eastern parts. Precipitation over the eastern half may even linger into Friday night or early Saturday.

Most of what falls will be rain, but any predawn precipitation in the west and post-sunset precipitation in the east will have the potential to mix with or turn to snow. Snow accumulations should be hard to come by, but an inch or two in higher elevations is not out of the question.

Depending on the evolution of this band of rain, some areas could see an inch or more of precipitation. Areas further east are more favored for this heavier rain, but exactly where is uncertain.

Highs on Friday will also depend on the speed of this system. Further east, low and mid 50s are possible. In the west, upper 40s are more likely. For areas west of I-390, it may even be cooler than that.

Scattered showers will be possible on Saturday behind this system. Some sun in the afternoon may be possible. Highs will reach the mid 50s.

Mother’s Day on Sunday is uncertain but trending drier. Low pressure is now modeled to pass south of the region, keeping the Finger Lakes cloudy but rain-free. However, sometimes the models divert from a solution in the 3-5 day window, but then come back to it as the event draws near. So while there is hope for a dry Sunday, it is still quite uncertain.

Assuming a dry day, highs on Sunday will be in the low 50s. Morning lows will mostly be in the mid 30s, but a few pockets could slip below freezing.

Next week will have more of the same with the occasional showers mixed in with sunny periods. Highs will remain remarkably steady from day to day, mostly residing in the low to mid 50s. Morning lows mostly look to be in the mid 30s, but if skies are clear on any given night, sub-freezing temperatures could be possible.

A very slow and gradual warming trend will start to take hold toward next weekend, returning highs closer to normal in the low and mid 60s.

More Information:

» Finger Lakes Weather Radar

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast wednesday may 5 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys and also run a goat milk soap business, Ye Olde Goat Cart. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.