Thunderstorms rumble into the forecast

finger lakes weather forecast tuesday may 25 2021 thunderstorms severe storms
A few isolated thunderstorms will pop up late this afternoon with a better chance for storms, some strong, on Wednesday. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Tuesday-Wednesday Thunderstorms

An increasingly warm and humid air mass will set the stage for thunderstorms across the Finger Lakes both today and tomorrow.

The morning is starting off cloudy for much of the region thanks to the influx of higher humidity. These clouds will gradually dissipate later this morning, allowing more sunshine to mix in.

Southwest winds will blow at around 10 mph, ensuring the flow of warm and humid air is continuous. Highs should reach the mid 80s for much of the Finger Lakes, but especially in the I-90 region west of Cayuga Lake. Some upper 80s may even be possible.

Dewpoints will increase to the low 60s in the east with mid and upper 60s across the central and western Finger Lakes. This will make it feel quite muggy, and will lead to a few scattered thunderstorms developing.

These storms will pop up between 3-5 PM and will track east through the area. Individual storm cells will be small, and the coverage will be sparse. Most areas will probably not see storms, therefore. Those that do can expect a brief period of heavy rain, lightning, and perhaps some gusty winds. One or two severe thunderstorm warnings may be needed.

As the sun sets, the storms will quickly diminish. The weather will remain quiet, albeit muggy and warm, through the overnight and first half of Wednesday.

By midday Wednesday, temperatures will be pushing through the 80s once more with dewpoints into the 60s. A strong weather system will be moving into the area, and winds aloft will be blowing at a steady clip.

Thunderstorms will again develop over the region and should be more numerous than the storms today. Several clusters or small lines of storms will be possible. Heavy rain, frequent lighting, hail, and damaging winds are possible.

Still, the severe threat should remain isolated to scattered. In a typical year, we see several severe thunderstorm events of this level. A severe thunderstorm watch is probable, and several severe thunderstorm warnings are likely.

Storms should move east by the mid-afternoon. A few additional storms may form late in the afternoon, but with a lower severe threat.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast tuesday may 25 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Turning Cool

Winds will turn to the northwest Wednesday night, pushing the heat and humidity away. Thursday will be a day with more sun than clouds. Temperatures will top out in the mid and upper 60s, and dewpoints will drop to very comfortable levels in the 40s.

An area of low pressure will pass to the south on Friday. Rain will move into the area and be widespread throughout much of the day. Most of the region should see over a half-inch of rain, but less than an inch.

With the steady rain, temperatures may have a hard time even getting above 50 degrees.

The weekend will be quiet. Saturday may have some clouds, but Sunday should be sunny. Saturday will only see highs in the upper 50s, while Sunday reaches the mid 60s.

Next week looks fairly quiet as temperatures work their way back into the 70s.

More Information:

» Finger Lakes Weather Radar

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast tuesday may 25 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys and also run a goat milk soap business, Ye Olde Goat Cart. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.

  1. John
    |

    Thanks for including dewpoints in your forecasts. For me at least, dewpoints are more indicative of “comfortableness” than temperature.