An area of low pressure spinning across Lake Ontario will head toward New England today as a Canadian high pressure system moves north of the Upper Great Lakes.
A few scattered showers rotating around the low will dot the region this morning and into the first part of the afternoon. Areas closer to Lake Ontario are seeing the showers early this morning, but the activity will gradually spread southeast across most of the remainder of the Finger Lakes.
Most of the rain should be over by 2 or 3 PM, but a few showers may linger a bit longer in the southeastern Finger Lakes across Cortland, Tompkins, Tioga, and Chemung counties. Some sunshine will start to break out late in the day, especially for areas west of Cayuga Lake.
As the low begins to pull away, northwest winds will increase to 10-15 mph. Gusts from the late morning through the afternoon will be 25-30 mph.
Temperatures will spend much of the day in the 60s, but low 70s will develop from west to east this afternoon as the sun starts to break through.
Skies will continue to clear tonight, allowing temperatures to fall into the upper 40s and low 50s. Northwest winds will continue through the night and into Wednesday. Tomorrow’s winds will still be breezy, but not as strong as today.
The core of a pocket of cold air between the low and the high will build in for tomorrow. Most areas will be in the mid 60s with a few upper 60s sprinkled in. Skies will be mostly sunny from start to finish.
Wednesday night will be the coolest we will get with overnight lows in the mid and upper 40s beneath mostly clear skies.
Watching Thunderstorm Potentials
Temperatures will make a quick recovery Thursday and Friday as our flow of air turns to the west, then southwest.
Thursday will turn out to be a pleasant day. Sunshine will mix with some afternoon fair weather clouds and perhaps some late thin clouds. Highs will reach the mid 70s.
Friday will likely see increasing clouds as a weather system moves into the Great Lakes. A few late day showers and thunderstorms will also be possible, continuing into the evening and possibly overnight hours. Temperatures on Friday should reach the low 80s.
I continue to monitor Saturday closely as this next system moves into the region. It is still far too early to rely on the details showing on the models, but trends so far continue to point towards at least a chance for strong thunderstorms.
Regardless of how Saturday unfolds, Sunday will be a quieter day. Expect a mix of sun and clouds and temperatures in the 70s.
Another thunderstorm event will be possible early next week. At this time, the overall setup does not look quite as good for strong storms as it does on Saturday. There is also a question of whether this event will unfold on Monday or Tuesday.
Temperatures will take another dip toward the middle of next week behind that system, but like this week, it will probably be short-lived.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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