An unsettled weather pattern will keep showers and storms in the forecast for each of the next five days.
This morning, a large complex of showers and thunderstorms is moving through the Great Lakes. These storms developed over Minnesota last night and have been working their way east and southeast. The bulk of the rain will dissipate this morning and/or move southeast toward Ohio, but some of the rain will push into the Finger Lakes.
The best chance for rain will come during the early and mid afternoon hours. There is some question as to how long lasting the rain will be as it moves east, but the rain should stay widespread enough that most if not all the region sees at least some rain this afternoon.
This activity will serve as a front of sorts, allowing an increase in humidity to take place behind the rain for the late afternoon and nighttime hours. Additional showers and a few thunderstorms will pop up and continue through the night.
This activity will be more scattered, but there should be enough individual cells that over half of the region will see rain again tonight.
Saturday remains uncertain in its details, but the chances for a robust severe event are low. There are questions about how many thunderstorms will develop, but I feel there will be at least a few scattered storms, if not a few clusters that will impact larger areas.
The focus for storms will be during the latter half of the afternoon. Southern and eastern areas have the best chance for storms if they stay isolated. These areas will also have the best chance for some small hail or gusty winds should a more organized area of storms develop.
Lastly for the weekend, a few scattered showers and storms will pop up on Sunday as warm air and humidity make another push into the region. Probably less than half of the region will see rain on Sunday, and those that do should only see it for a brief time.
Temperatures will be held in check today by the incoming rain with highs generally in the mid and upper 70s. Overnight lows tonight will be in the low and mid 60s.
Saturday’s highs will be in the low to mid 80s. The fewer thunderstorms and less rain, the warmer it will be. A small pocket of cooler, less humid air will move in Saturday night, allowing temperatures to fall to the upper 50s.
Sunday will have highs mostly in the low 80s with a few pockets of mid 80s possible. It will be a warm, muggy night, though, with overnight temperatures sticking to the upper 60s.
Next Week’s Weather
Hot and humid air will be in place for Monday. High temperatures will soar into the upper 80s and low 90s. Dewpoints will be in the 65-70 degree range throughout the day, leading to a highly unstable atmosphere conducive for rapid thunderstorm development.
The upper levels of the atmosphere will not be as favorable for thunderstorms with the jet stream displaced well to the northwest. Most of the day should be dry as a result.
Conditions will become more favorable late in the day and into the evening hours, and at least scattered thunderstorms should develop. Only a localized severe threat should be expected, but these storms may be proficient lightning producers.
On Tuesday, a strong cold front will move into the region. Widespread rain will fall through the morning and into the afternoon with some embedded thunderstorms. The rain may come down heavily at times and many areas could see over an inch of rain just Tuesday morning and early afternoon.
Temperatures will stay in the 70s Monday night, but will crash with the frontal passage and hover near 60 degrees by Tuesday afternoon. By Wednesday morning, temperatures will range from 45 to 50 degrees.
Next Wednesday looks a lot like this past Wednesday with ample sunshine, but cooler temperatures. Highs should be in the upper 60s. Temperatures will quickly bounce back into the 70s on Thursday and the 80s by Friday with the weather likely staying dry.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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