A trio of weather features are converging on the Northeastern United States today and will result in widespread rain and thunderstorms, including in the Finger Lakes region.
A stalled-out frontal boundary remains draped from west to east right through the middle of the Finger Lakes. To the west, a strong disturbance in riding along this front. To the south, Tropical Storm Elsa is churning through the Carolinas.
The approaching disturbance is beginning to interact with Elsa, leading to an increase in atmospheric moisture through the Mid-Atlantic. This higher moisture air will work into our region as well by the late morning and afternoon.
There are just a few showers dotting the area early this morning, but the radar will fill in during the late morning and afternoon hours. Numerous areas of rain and thundery downpours are likely. A few clusters of more organized storms are also possible, thanks to some modest support from winds aloft.
This could lead to a few scattered instances of damaging winds this afternoon. Thunderstorms will also tap into the moisture and produce torrential downpours. If an area sees multiple of these downpours, flash flooding could become a concern.
With so many different factors at play today, there are some uncertainties in the details. These include where a corridor of heaviest thunderstorms, and thus the highest flood potential, will set up, and whether breaks of sunshine this morning will lead to more support for strong afternoon thunderstorms.
The rain and thunderstorms should become more scattered this evening but will linger through the overnight. Areas of dense fog will also be possible.
Temperatures today will reach the mid and upper 70s and will drop back into the 60s tonight. It will remain very humid right into early Friday.
Friday still has some uncertainty as well but should overall be a much lower impact day. The main question will be if some afternoon showers and storms will bubble up before dry air starts to filter into the region. Right now, at least a few showers should be expected. These could linger into the evening hours.
Brief Break, then Back at It
Dry air will take over for Saturday with gentle north winds as Elsa races northeast off the New England coast.
Skies will be a mix of sun and clouds. While a stray shower cannot be ruled out, most areas will stay dry. Those that do see rain will only see a brief shower.
Temperatures will remain in the mid 70s, but dewpoints will drop comfortably into the 50s.
Winds will turn back to a southerly flow on Sunday and dewpoints will creep back into the 60s and temperatures will rise to near 80.
The forecast for Sunday is more uncertain than usual. As the warmer, more humid air moves in, rain will also try to move in from the south. The models are split on whether it will reach the Finger Lakes during the day Sunday, though more are joining the rainy camp. Some models that do show rain show potentially heavy amounts into Sunday night.
Early next week, we will find ourselves right back in the same type of pattern as the last two weeks. Temperatures will be warm, the humidity high, and daily showers and thunderstorms will be possible.
At this time, every day next week looks to at least have a chance for afternoon showers and storms. That does not mean it will rain everywhere every day, though.
We can only persist in this pattern for so long before flooding concerns become elevated. Depending on how today and Sunday unfold, additional downpours next week could become problematic. Stay tuned.
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
Monthly Donations Getting Lost
Want to support Finger Lakes Weather and keep the no-hype, local information flowing? As time goes on, monthly donations are lost as credit cards expire and the donations are not updated. Much of the progress with funding FLX Weather gained late last year has been lost.
Please consider a monthly donation using the form below, or place an ad for your business on Finger Lakes Weather. Thank you for your continued support of Local Weather!