Hot temperatures reach their peak today

finger lakes weather forecast wednesday august 25 2021 heat advisories showers humid hot
Most areas will stay dry today, but rain chances will gradually increase over the coming days as temperatures slowly decrease. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Heat Advisories

Most of the Finger Lakes region is under a heat advisory today, as per the National Weather Service.

High pressure over the Atlantic Ocean and eastern United States is pulling hot and humid air northeastward from the southern Plains. Meanwhile, a series of weak disturbances are tracking through the Midwest and Upper Great Lakes.

This pattern will yield a hot and humid but mostly dry day today, followed by a gradual increase in rain chances and a decrease in temperatures.

The only chance for rain today will be in the late afternoon when a few isolated showers or small storms may pop up. These will be most likely south of Lake Ontario along the lake breeze, and in the higher elevations of the western Southern Tier.

If storms develop along the lake breeze to the north, they could develop into a small cluster. Any activity that develops in the south should remain isolated, small cells. Most areas will not see any rain at all.

South and southwest winds will push temperatures to near 90 degrees for many areas. A few places will creep into the low 90s while higher elevations stay in the upper or mid 80s. Dewpoints will climb into the low or even mid 70s. This will result in heat index calculations in the mid and upper 90s, which has prompted the heat advisories.

Temperatures will only back into the 70s tonight with overnight lows near or just above 70. It will remain muggy and a stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out. While most areas should again stay dry, there will be chances for rain both this evening and again late in the overnight.

The chances for rain will increase slightly on Thursday as a small impulse of energy moves in. The shower and storm coverage again looks sparse, but more areas will see rain tomorrow than today. As usual, the afternoon will have the top chances for rain showers.

With the extra rain, and associated cloud cover, highs will likely top out just shy of 90 degrees.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast wednesday august 25 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Unsettled Weekend

The rain chances on Friday will increase further as afternoon thunderstorms pop up, but mostly for the southern half of the region. A small frontal boundary will bisect the region. To the north, some rain is not out of the question, but less likely.

High temperatures on Friday will mainly be in the mid 80s. North winds coming off Lake Ontario to the north of the boundary may keep lake shore areas closer to 80 degrees.

Scattered showers and storms will be possible on both Saturday and Sunday as well. Sunday looks to have a bit higher chance for rain than Saturday does. Neither day looks like a washout, and it would not be surprising for a few areas to dodge the rain both days.

Temperatures will continue to slide back with highs in the low 80s each day. The humidity will not let up, though, with dewpoints in the low 70s.

A stronger cold front will move into the area on Monday. This will be the best chance for rain in the upcoming days, though it is still far enough out that the details are uncertain. Warm and muggy conditions will persist until the front clears the region.

Behind the front, cooler and less humid air will build in. Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 70s with comfortable dewpoints in the upper 50s. This will be the start of what should be a generally cooler, less humid pattern as we head through early September.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast wednesday august 25 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.