Cooler air settles in for an extended stay

finger lakes weather forecast friday october 22 2021 cooler near average showers rain weekend
Temperatures will settle into a cooler, more seasonable pattern that will continue into what looks like a rainy next week. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

Weekend Weather Forecast

A cold front moving through the Finger Lakes this morning will kick off a new pattern of near average high temperatures, though overnight lows will continue to run above average, just not as much so as earlier in the week.

Most of the Finger Lakes region is starting off Friday morning in the upper 40s to low 50s. Some areas west of Canandaigua Lake are in the mid 40s.

There are plenty of clouds throughout the region, but little in the way of precipitation. This will continue to be the case for much of the day today. A few spits of drizzle and perhaps a couple stray showers will be possible through the morning.

The best chance for a little sun poking through the overcast will come late in the afternoon. Skies will remain rather cloudy into the nighttime hours, though.

Northwest winds will blow at 5-10 mph throughout the day. Cooler air will steadily move into the region, counteracting the normal daytime heating. Temperatures will only add a couple degrees with highs between 50-55. The best chance for mid 50s will be between Corning and Binghamton and in the areas surrounding Seneca Lake.

After sunset, the temperature will drop into the mid 40s this evening with low and mid 40s overnight. A few isolated locations may just get below 40 degrees, but the clouds should prevent more widespread 30s.

Average highs for this point in autumn are in the low and mid 50s while average lows are in the mid and upper 30s.

Saturday will be a bit cooler today with highs generally around 50 degrees. Clouds will remain plentiful, though some breaks of sunshine are more likely than today. However, there will also be a few more scattered showers to dodge. It will not be a washout by any means.

Likewise, Saturday night will be a bit cooler as well. Upper 30s will become more common, but plenty of areas will also stick to the low 40s. The usual dichotomy between warmer near-lake and colder non-lake locations will evolve.

A band of showers may move through Saturday night with light precipitation amounts.

Sunday will once more be rather cloudy, though with a few breaks of sun here and there. Precipitation will be limited to some lake effect east-northeast of the Great Lakes. This means most of the Finger Lakes will be dry, with perhaps a few showers between Rochester and Buffalo.

Highs on Sunday will reach the mid 50s for most areas.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast friday october 22 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Wet Next Week

Low pressure will move east from the central Plains and Midwest Sunday night into Monday. A warm front will extend east of the front and drape itself across Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Long Island. The front will not have much luck moving northward.

Rain should overspread the Finger Lakes Sunday night and persist well into Monday. The afternoon may dry out some, especially for southern areas, but additional rain is likely Monday night and into Tuesday as the low moves along the front.

Once the low makes it to the East Coast, it should strengthen and may throw some heavy rain back toward our region. The details of this evolution and the heavy rain threat in our area remain uncertain but something to monitor.

For now, it suffices to say that Monday and probably Tuesday will both be quite rainy.

The clouds and rain will keep temperatures in the upper 40s for highs on Monday with low 50s on Tuesday. Overnight temperatures will stick to the mid and upper 40s. This is a significant change from a couple days ago, when clear skies were expected to bring a couple frosty mornings early next week.

Another storm system will approach for the later part of next week. Wednesday will have a few morning showers on the backside of the early week system, while rain will arrive late Thursday ahead of the next. Both days should have some sun as well with temperatures in the mid 50s.

Friday looks particularly unsettled, but dry air wrapping around the large low pressure system may help hold rain amounts down. This would be welcome news, especially if the heavy rain Tuesday materializes. Details remain very uncertain this far out though, so continue to monitor the forecast.

More Information:

» Finger Lakes Weather Radar

» Finger Lakes Weather Radar

» Zip Code Forecasts

» Your Forecast
finger lakes weather 7-day forecast friday october 22 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.

2 Responses

  1. MrsCleve


    I’m looking for a place to visit for Christmas where I can see snow. When will you be posting the Christmas weather predictions?

    • Meteorologist Drew Montreuil

      Hi Mrs. Cleve,

      It will not be possible to get a good guess for Christmas snow until 1 week in advance, maybe 2 weeks if the pattern is highly certain. Any snow forecast further in advance than that is just farming for clicks and is not acting scientifically.