Increasing winds and clouds lead to gusty, rainy night

finger lakes weather forecast thursday november 11 2021 filtered sunshine rain wind chilly weekend snow
A large weather system will bring rain and wind tonight, and chilly, unsettled weather into next week. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Strong Storm System

A powerful low pressure system near Minneapolis, Minnesota this morning will track east and bring unsettled weather to the Finger Lakes over the next several days.

For the daytime hours today, though, the weather will remain quiet. There will be signs of the coming weather, though.

First is the cloud cover. Thin clouds overspread the region last night and will persist through the day. Some sunshine will filter through the clouds, especially this morning. Later in the afternoon, the clouds should thicken and the sun will have less luck shining through.

The second sign will be a steadily increasing southeast wind. Wind speeds will be under 10 mph through the morning but will increase to over 10 mph for the afternoon. After the sun sets, the wind will pick up more, with speeds of 15-20 mph and gusts to 40 mph.

Temperatures will rise into the mid 50s this afternoon and will initially drop a few degrees as the sun sets. It will not be long before temperatures rise back into the mid 50s this evening.

Scattered rain showers will show up around midnight with a band of steadier rain around dawn Friday. Some heavier rain will be embedded within the larger area of rain. Most areas should see under an inch of rain, but poor drainage areas and areas still saturated may seem some minor flooding.

As the widespread rain moves through, winds will suddenly swing around to the west and speeds will drop. Temperatures will not really change though, with mid 50s persisting for most areas through the morning and into Friday afternoon.

The rain will end from west to east during the early and mid-morning hours on Friday. By the afternoon, skies should turn mostly sunny.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thursday november 11 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Showers and Flurries

By Saturday morning, the primary low pressure from the storm system will be several hundred miles north of Lake Ontario into Canada. However, we will still be under the influence from this large system.

A bundle of atmospheric energy will rotate into the area Saturday morning. By the afternoon, it will spawn a new low pressure system to our east, which will lift northeast into New England by Saturday evening.

Rain showers will move in Saturday morning, mixing with snow over higher elevations. Temperatures will range from the mid 30s to the low 40s. during the morning. Afternoon temperatures will hold steady and then drop late as the sun sets and the low to the east strengthens.

Typically warmer areas may stay mostly rain, but many areas will see a changeover to snow showers. The precipitation will come to an end as this happens, so no more than a light dusting on some grassy surfaces will accumulate, if even that.

West winds Saturday night will bring some rain and snow showers off Lake Erie into the region. Winds will turn to the south on Sunday, removing the lake effect. Still, rain and snow showers will be possible as another packet of energy rotates in from the southwest.

Temperatures on Sunday should still manage to reach the low 40s for most areas, though a few higher elevations may stick to the upper 30s.

Monday will be more of the same, but with more rain and less snow. Temperatures look to get a small boost with most areas reaching the mid 40s. It will be short-lived, though, with colder air building in by Tuesday.

With highs not escaping the 30s and northwest winds, snow showers will be likely off Lake Ontario through Tuesday. Grassy surfaces could see a light coating, and an inch or two could even accumulate over the hills of Central New York.

By Wednesday, we will escape the influence of the low and temperatures will jump back to around 50 degrees. A cold front on Thursday will quickly end the warm up, and it will be back to chilly temperatures with rain and snow showers by next weekend.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thursday november 11 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.

2 Responses

  1. Kelly Doolittle
    |

    The forecast is not looking too good for Saturday Stories in the Park in Ithaca at this point, I see. Should I check in again tomorrow to see if our area may still be clear of precipitation from mid-morning to noon on the 13th?

    Thank you for your help!

    • Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
      |

      Hi Kelly. The models have been pretty consistent in bringing rain/snow into the area sooner rather than later Saturday morning. It could still shift, but I agree it doesn’t look good.