After some sun Friday, rain and snow showers likely through the weekend

Sunshine behind the rain Friday morning will not last, with showers and flurries flying through the weekend and into next week. [Photo by Judith Pierpont]

Chilly Air Builds In

Widespread rain along a cold front is moving through the Finger Lakes early Friday morning.

Behind this rain, skies are already turning clear over Western New York. Over the next several hours, the rain will push out of the region to the east and the sunshine will build into our region.

By the midday hours, skies should be sunny throughout the area and will remain so for the rest of the day.

The sunshine will counteract the initial push of cool air moving in behind the front. Temperatures may drop a couple degrees this morning after starting in the mid 50s, but much of the day will see temperatures in the low and mid 50s.

Strong winds overnight are also diminishing as they turn to the west behind the front. Wind speeds the rest of the day will be 5-10 mph with gusts around 20 mph.

Clear skies this evening will facilitate temperatures dropping into the low 40s. Winds will turn to the south and clouds will start to increase after midnight, so temperatures will not drop much more overnight.

Another wave of atmospheric energy will swing into the area by dawn Saturday morning, spreading rain and higher elevation snow showers into the area.

The precipitation may come down steadily for a couple hours east of Cayuga Lake during the early afternoon as low pressure develops over eastern New York. A coating of snow may be possible over some of the higher terrain in that area.

Temperatures will peak during the late morning and midday hours on Saturday in the mid 40s. Winds will turn back to the west as the low starts to develop and temperatures will drop into the upper 30s and low 40s for the afternoon.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast friday november 12 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Lake Effect and Small Disturbances

As the precipitation associated with the developing low pushes east later Saturday afternoon, lake effect will start to kick in. With west winds, the Lake Ontario band will stay far to the north over the Tug Hill, but the Lake Erie band will have some impact in our area.

The steadiest precipitation off Lake Erie will be west of the Finger Lakes, but on and off showers and flurries are likely through Saturday night and into early Sunday. A few places could see a coating of snow, especially near and west of I-390.

Temperatures Saturday night will fall into the low and mid 30s. Most areas will rise to near or above 40 on Sunday, but higher elevations will stick to the upper 30s.

Winds will become southerly ahead of another disturbance, causing the lake effect to move out of our area Sunday morning. Rain and snow showers associated with the disturbance will move in late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.

With nighttime temperatures back into the low and mid 30s, some areas, mostly higher elevations, could see a coating to perhaps even an inch of snow.

Showers will continue into Monday with most areas transitioning to rain as temperatures climb back to around 40. A few higher elevations may stay snow throughout the day, and snow will become more common once more as Monday night sets in.

The precipitation will transition to lake effect off northwest winds Monday night with snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario into Tuesday. Again, minor accumulations will be possible, especially over higher elevations in Central New York.

Tuesday will be the coldest day coming up, with morning lows near 30 and highs in many places not getting to or above 40 degrees.

Temperatures will make a brief rebound Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night as another system moves into the area. As things look now, 50s will move in Wednesday afternoon and persist through the night, similar to last night, before a cold front knocks temperatures down for Thursday.

Some light rain is likely with this midweek system, followed by more chilly weather with rain and snow showers late next week and next weekend.

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast friday november 12 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.