More sun Tuesday before some showers Wednesday and Thursday

finger lakes weather forecast tuesday december 14 2021 sun clouds rain wednesday warm
Temperatures will remain in the 40s through Friday with mid and upper 50s on Thursday. Wintry weather is possible this weekend. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Above Average Temperatures

High pressure moving through the Upper Great Lakes will bring more sunshine to the area today.

Skies will start the day mostly clear before a slow increase in thin clouds from the west. These will gradually filter some of the sunshine later today, but all in all, it will be another bright day.

With the high to our northwest, our winds have shifted to a more northerly direction. That will bring in some cooler air that will knock high temperatures back a few degrees. Mid 40s are likely for all but a few of the hilltops between Syracuse and Cortland.

While not quite as warm as yesterday, these temperatures are still 7-10 degrees above the average high for mid-December. That is not an overly significant departure from average, but it is a departure, nonetheless.

The winds today will be light with speeds around 5 mph and gusts near or under 20 mph.

Thin clouds will continue to gradually increase tonight and will become a more substantial overcast. Winds will also swing around to the southeast as a weak weather system approaches. Most areas will have temperatures in the low and mid 30s tonight as a result.

Wednesday will be mostly cloudy, though some sun may filter through the overcast early on if the clouds remain thin enough. Clouds will continue to thicken and some rain showers will move from west to east through the region during the afternoon.

The rain may be widespread for the early to mid afternoon before becoming more on and off for the late afternoon and evening. Most of the rain should be to the east by midnight.

Temperatures will be similar today, though some low 40s are possible in higher elevations.

South winds will blow from Wednesday afternoon through the night and into Thursday. Some hilltops could see gusts of 30-35 mph while lower elevations see gusts under 30 mph.

Thursday will be the warmest day of the week, especially if some morning sunshine can poke out. Highs will be into the mid and upper 50s with a few low 60s possible in and around Rochester.

A few more rain showers will move through during the afternoon, but these will be more sporadic than the rain Wednesday.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast tuesday december 14 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Back to Winter

The rain showers late Thursday will be associated with a cold front. Late Thursday, winds will turn to the southwest. For the areas west of Keuka Lake and along the shore of Lake Ontario, this will mean blustery winds with gusts of 35-45 mph. Further east, top gusts will remain near or under 30 mph. The strongest gusts will come Thursday evening.

Skies will turn clear late Thursday night with decreasing winds speeds and a shift to a west wind. A new batch of thin clouds will move in during Friday, becoming rather thick by the end of the day. No precipitation is expected.

High temperatures will once again fall into the mid 40s.

Saturday, another weather system will move through the region. While uncertainty remains high, the most likely scenario will be for a mix of precipitation types across the area. The best chance for all snow will be along and north of the Thruway. The question will be whether this is purely a rain or snow event, of if icing will become a concern as well.

Thankfully, this looks like a quick moving system, which will keep precipitation amounts down. Still, travel interests on Saturday, especially in the afternoon and evening, should be monitored closely.

A few snow showers will be possible on Sunday behind this system. A new regime of near average temperatures will set up, which means highs generally in the 30s next week. There will be several chances for snow and our chances for a White Christmas are increasing but remain far from a certainty.

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast tuesday december 14 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.