Winter Storm Key Points (No Change to Forecast)

Sunday Night-Monday Winter Storm

As I anticipated and intended, I am not making any updates to my forecast or expectations from the post I made yesterday.

For the full details and analysis, please see that post by clicking here. If you have not yet read it in full, please do so.

Here are some key points I want to emphasize as the final hours until the storm arrives tick away.

• I have been told that my forecast is lower than every other forecast in the area. I anticipated this on Friday. I can only speak to my own forecasts and forecasting process and have done so at length.
• My snow amounts, at least for the eastern half of the region, are lower because I believe more sleet will mix in than what the models project. This has been my experience time after time with these systems.
• I do not need to make adjustments to my forecast because it was originally made to take into account model biases and model “noise”, where slight changes are seen from model to model, model run to model run.
• Snow will start from south to north through the evening hours with quickly deteriorating road conditions.

  

• After a period of sleet around and after midnight, snow will take over and become heavy in the west, while mixed precipitation continues in the east.
• Some areas of freezing rain will be possible in the southeastern Finger Lakes in the hours around dawn Monday.
• A slot of dry air will cause precipitation to taper off or even end for much of the eastern Finger Lakes during Monday morning. Up to this point, these areas will probably only have 1-4 inches of snow and sleet on the ground.
• Heavy snow will continue Monday morning in the west with significant accumulations.
• Regardless of the amounts of accumulation, travel Monday morning will be hazardous regionwide.
• Lighter snow will spread regionwide Monday afternoon with a few more inches of accumulation.
• Total snow accumulations remain uncertain through much of the Finger Lakes due to the question regarding sleet. Slight shifts in the intricacies of the storm could cause the snow to exceed or fall short of the forecast. That being said, I feel comfortable with the map shown at the top of this post.
• Lake effect will kick up Monday evening. Several more inches will be possible in eastern Wayne, northern Cayuga, and Onondaga counties.
• Some blowing snow will be possible Monday evening as winds pick up from the northwest.
• Most of the lake effect will wind down Tuesday morning, and by the afternoon, most areas should be free of any falling snow.

Please stay safe and be sure to let me know what conditions you are seeing as the storm unfolds. I will be extremely interested in snowfall amounts so I can analyze my forecast after the fact in an attempt to learn more and improve my forecasts further. I intend to have a write up on this analysis Tuesday afternoon.

Lastly, thank you to all who have financially supported my work over the last few days. Your generosity means the world to me. Without your support, I would not be able to do what I do. Thank you.

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