The last few days have seen temperatures in the 70s and the first severe thunderstorm warnings of the year, but winter is not about to let go of our region that easily.
Behind the cold front that moved through last night, lake effect snow is whitening parts of the Finger Lakes this morning. The snow is not overly well organized and is more a spray of snow showers than defined bands.
The lake effect will gradually decrease this morning and should end by the afternoon. Locally another inch or two will fall, but most places will see just a coating of additional accumulation.
Northwest winds will be blustery this morning but will weaken and turn more westerly through the afternoon. By this evening, nearly calm winds are expected as an area of high pressure slides through.
This high will bring some late day sun and clear skies early this evening. Temperatures this afternoon will top out in the mid 30s with locally warmer and cooler areas. Evening temperatures will fall to the mid 20s but will rise to the upper 20s by Wednesday morning.
An area of weak low pressure will track from the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon to the Mid-Atlantic coast tomorrow. Clouds ahead of this system will build in overnight with snow spreading north throughout tomorrow.
There are still some questions as to how far north the snow comes, but much of the Finger Lakes region should see at least some snow. The likelihood of 1-3 inches accumulating, with up to 4 inches in higher elevations, is growing.
Temperatures will still reach into the mid 30s tomorrow, so it should be fairly easy for road crews to keep at least the main roads in good shape. The heaviest snow will fall during the afternoon and should end by evening.
Warmer air will make another push northward on Thursday and Friday, but winter is putting in a claim on the weekend.
Thursday will have light winds and a mix of sunshine and thin clouds. Winds aloft will turn to the south, allowing some warmer air in. Look for highs Thursday in the low and mid 40s.
South winds will develop at the surface for Friday. Skies will be rather cloudy, but some sun may still poke through.
Temperatures will get pushed into the low 50s before a nighttime cold front moves through. Most of the precipitation is expected to be behind the front with light snow developing Friday night.
The front will stall out and low pressure will move along the front. It is still early, but chances are increasing for a period of heavy snow and strong winds in the Finger Lakes on Saturday, especially over the eastern half of the region.
With temperatures also falling through the 20s and into the 10s during the day Saturday, travel conditions could become very difficult if this scenario holds.
There is still a chance the front sets up too far east for major impacts in our region, so this will be something to watch closely over the next couple days.
Sunday is currently looking similar to today with some scattered morning lake effect snow showers followed by some afternoon sun.
Then, it looks as though spring will make its next run, with above average temperatures likely next week. The weather should become less active as well, with mainly dry conditions currently expected.
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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