Mild, mostly dry week to close out astronomical winter

finger lakes weather forecast monday march 14 2022 sun clouds mild warm
Warmer air will move in today and stick around throughout the week. Most days will see highs at or above 50 degrees. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Taste of Spring

The calendar says this is the last week of winter, but it will feel more like spring, at least until the weekend.

A large area of high pressure has built in along the coast of the Carolinas. Meanwhile, a strong jet stream is stretching across Canada just to the north of our area.

With the jet stream to the north and high pressure to the southeast, warm air has an open channel to flow into the Finger Lakes.

The influx of warm air will keep a few clouds around this morning, but sunshine will mix in as well. Additional clouds out ahead of a small disturbance in the jet stream will move in this afternoon.

Nonetheless, southwest winds will help temperatures rise to around 50 degrees today. Typically warmer areas in the northern and western Finger Lakes, such as Dansville, Canandaigua, Geneva, and Penn Yan, should be able to reach the low 50s. Higher elevations, especially over Central New York, will not quite reach 50.

The winds today will be light, with speeds under 10 mph and top gusts under 20 mph.

Skies will remain mostly cloudy tonight, with evening temperatures slowly working their way into the 30s. Overnight lows will be around 30 degrees, though some colder, terrain-induced pockets are likely.

Tuesday will continue to be cloudy, with some afternoon rain showers moving in. The rain should not be heavy with rain amounts under a quarter-inch, and possibly under a tenth of an inch for most.

Temperatures on Tuesday will take on a north-south gradient, with mid and upper 40s along and north of the Thruway ranging to mid and upper 50s between Elmira and Binghamton. West and southwest winds will blow across the southern half of the area, with northwest winds to the north.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday march 14 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Even Warmer Late Week

Another push of warm air will move in on Wednesday as skies turn sunny and winds turn more southerly.

Highs should average out in the upper 50s, with higher terrain in the mid 50s and the warmest pockets pushing above 60 degrees.

Thursday, too, will have a good deal of sunshine, but also some thin clouds from time to time. Both Wednesday and Thursday will be dry.

South and southwest winds will continue to pump warm air northward, and Thursday should end up as the warmest day of the week. After starting in the upper 30s, afternoon highs should top out well into the 60s.

One thing to monitor on Thursday will be the relative humidity. Currently, afternoon relative humidity values are expected to be between 35-45%. This will lead to some concern for springtime brush fires, but unless values go lower, it will probably not be too significant a threat.

Spring is brushfire season in the Finger Lakes, though, as the dead vegetation from last season dries out after the winter, even if the soil conditions are wet.

The forecast confidence begins to unravel late in the week as another weather system moves in. Rain showers will become more likely on Friday as a frontal boundary sets up over the region.

Temperatures will depend on the position of the front and could range from the 40s with the front to the south, to the 60s with the front to the north. If the front ends up bisecting the region, both sides may set up over various parts of the region.

Saturday will need to be monitored as precipitation becomes more widespread and intense. Again, the frontal position will be key, both in terms of precipitation amounts and temperatures. It is too early to offer much in the way of speculation on how Saturday will unfold.

Cooler air will probably move in at some point this weekend and will be especially likely on Sunday behind this system. Still, highs Sunday may end up around 40 degrees, with more warm weather next week, the first official week of Spring.

More Information:

» Finger Lakes Weather Radar

» Finger Lakes Weather Radar

» Zip Code Forecasts

» Your Forecast

This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.