Sunny and Warm
The weather will continue to be quiet and tranquil as high pressure keeps a firm grip over our region.
There will only be minor, subtle differences in the weather today versus yesterday or tomorrow. For the most part, it will just be sunny and warm with winds on the lighter side.
The wind today will be from the east and southeast as opposed to the northeast winds yesterday. On Wednesday, the wind will turn back to the northeast. Wind speeds will remain around 5 mph with gusts around 15 mph.
A few thin clouds will be possible today, especially in the afternoon over western portions of the region. These will do nothing to block the sunshine but could make for some spectacular sunsets tonight. Wednesday may also have a couple stray clouds but will by and large be clear.
As for temperatures, low and mid 70s will be widespread today. Even higher elevations should be at least around 70 degrees. On Wednesday, highs will add a few more degrees, with widespread mid 70s and pockets of upper 70s.
Dewpoints will remain low each day, sending relative humidity values under 30 percent. The waning risk for brush fires will continue in this dry airmass.
On Thursday, winds will turn back to the southeast, allowing some Atlantic moisture to move northward. Dewpoints will creep up, but afternoon relative humidity values will still be under 40 percent.
A few additional clouds will move in, especially later in the day. Again, they should have little to no impact on the available sunshine. Many places will warm to near or above 80 degrees with upper 70s in the higher elevations of Central New York and the Southern Tier region.
Atmospheric moisture will continue to rise Friday and into the weekend. Dewpoints Friday and Saturday will be well into the 50s, while Sunday could see dewpoints into the 60s.
This increase in moisture will have a more noticeable impact on the weather.
First, fair weather clouds will bubble up during the late morning and afternoon hours. A few of these will grow into showers and scattered thunderstorms.
There are questions as to how widespread the showers and storms will become since a large scale forcing mechanism to get the storms going will be lacking. Also, with light winds throughout the atmosphere, severe weather seems unlikely.
Though these showers and storms will be possible, many areas will be dry on one or both days, so I would not be too nervous about having general outdoor plans this weekend.
Temperatures will remain warm with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s both Saturday and Sunday.
On Monday, a cold front will move through the region. Showers and thunderstorms will be more likely. Early indications have some modest winds in the atmosphere, so if the timing worked out perfectly, a minor severe risk could develop. This will be something to watch for but does not seem overly concerning at this time.
Tuesday may have a few showers with highs retreating to the 50s. Beyond that, the temperature and precipitation forecast become too uncertain to pick out any major trends.
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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