Temperatures climb as sunny, dry weather continues

finger lakes weather forecast wednesday may 11 2022 sunny warm high pressure
Some areas will approach 80 degrees today, but most should be into the 80s Thursday and Friday. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

Summertime Warmth

The overall weather pattern over the northeastern United States, including the Finger Lakes, remains largely unchanged.

High pressure centered east of Maine extends southwest directly over our region, keeping skies sunny and winds light.

There will be a few more thin clouds today than in days past, but with no impact on the overall amount of sunshine. There will be start to finish sunshine once more today.

Winds will be light with speeds around or even under 5 mph. The wind will primarily come from a northeasterly direction.

Temperatures will continue to inch upward with most of the region near or above 75 degrees today. It is not out of the question that some places could reach 80 degrees, but most will settle into the mid and upper 70s.

Evening temperatures will quickly drop through the 50s and end up in the 40s once again. Skies will remain mostly clear.

Thursday will bring more of the same, but with a couple subtle differences.

For starters, the wind will turn to the south-southeast for much of the region. North of I-90, an afternoon lake breeze will keep winds more northerly. Wind speeds will be under 5 mph for the first half of the day, then increasing to 5-10 mph for the afternoon.

More substantial clouds high in the atmosphere will move in from the north during the afternoon. These will not completely block the sun, but skies will no longer be a brilliant blue hue.

Lastly, temperatures will take another leap upwards. Only the higher elevations will fail to reach 80 degrees, and many areas could sneak into the mid 80s. The air will be dry in the morning, but dewpoints will rise into the 50s during the afternoon.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast wednesday may 11 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Pop-Up Storms

Morning fog will be possible in the typical valley locations across the southern Finger Lakes and Southern Tier Friday morning thanks to the increase in atmospheric moisture. Temperatures will also be warmer, starting out well into the 50s.

Friday will be another summery day with highs mostly in the low 80s. An increase in clouds for the afternoon may keep the Southern Tier near or just under 80 degrees.

Those clouds may develop into a few isolated showers and storms later Friday afternoon. These will mainly be contained to the counties that border Pennsylvania. Most areas will not see any rain Friday, even in the Southern Tier.

Late Friday, dewpoints will take another step up to around or, at times, over 60 degrees. This level of atmospheric moisture will remain throughout Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.

The increase in moisture will support more in the way of pop-up afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Without a weather system to trigger the activity Saturday and Sunday, the coverage of this precipitation will be hit-or-miss. Many areas may get through the weekend without rain, while other nearby locations could see over a half-inch of rainfall.

Organized severe weather is not expected, though some brief small hail or gusty winds can never be totally ruled out with pop-up afternoon storms.

High temperatures have a better chance of reaching or exceeding 80 degrees on Saturday than on Sunday. Still, it will be plenty warm on Sunday with highs in the mid and upper 70s.

The chances for rain and thunderstorms will be higher on Monday as a cold front rolls through. The details are still up in the air as far as timing, rain amounts, and the strength of any thunderstorms. Overall, the severe threat looks minimal, though.

Temperatures will take a couple steps back with 60s Tuesday and 50s Wednesday, but there are growing signs of a quick rebound to more warm weather. The overall pattern does not appear to be staying dry like this week, though it does not look excessively wet, either.

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast wednesday may 11 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.