Monday Head’s Up
The threat of severe thunderstorms is on the rise for Monday during the midday and early afternoon hours.
A strong cold front will be supported by increasing winds aloft as it clashes into a warm, moist environment ahead of the front.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the western Finger Lakes and central Pennsylvania by the late morning and will quickly move off to the northeast. These storms should quickly intensify and organize as they move across the Finger Lakes.
As such, the greatest risk for severe weather will be across the eastern Finger Lakes.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Level 3- Enhanced severe risk from roughly Elmira to Ithaca to Syracuse and points eastward. This zone will likely be adjusted in subsequent updates from the Storm Prediction Center.
An Enhanced severe threat (orange shading) means there is high confidence that several storms will attain severe status. The most intense storms may be similar to storms our area experiences only once or twice a year. The last Level 3 designation in the Finger Lakes was June 21, 2021.
Further west, in the Level 2- Slight severe risk zone (shaded yellow), isolated to scattered severe storms are possible. These storms will be similar to severe thunderstorms our area experiences several times each year.
The greatest threat will be damaging winds and frequent lightning. Large hail and an isolated tornado are also possible, though.
The severe thunderstorm threat should end by 2-4 PM, though an area of heavy rain immediately behind the storms will be possible. A few more late afternoon storms will also be possible but should not be severe.
I will have my usual weekday morning blog post around 8 AM Monday. I will also have a live blog with constant updates and analyses throughout the event. I estimate the live blog will begin around 11 AM and will continue as long as the threat exists.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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