Breezy and cooler today with more temperature swings coming

finger lakes weather forecast tuesday may 17 2022 cool breezy showers
Blustery northwest winds will hold temperatures mostly to the upper 50s today, but by Saturday, 90 degree heat is expected. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

A Bit Chilly

The strong cold front that brought severe thunderstorms to parts of the area yesterday now has our region in a chilly air mass.

Blustery northwest winds will blow throughout the day. The strongest winds will come from the late morning until the mid afternoon. During this time, wind speeds will be around 15 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph.

It will also be a rather cloudy day, though occasional glimpses of the sun are also expected. A few showers will dot the region, especially during the peak daytime heating hours this afternoon.

As is evident by some showers along I-90 early this morning, the rain will not necessarily be limited to that time. In general, though, most areas should see little if any rainfall today.

Temperatures will be held below average with this setup. Most areas will probably not reach 60 degrees today, though many will get close. The best chance for breaking into the 60s will be in the Southern Tier and perhaps in and around Rochester.

Skies will gradually clear tonight as wind speeds drop, allowing temperatures to fall. Most areas should stay in the low 40s, but pockets of 30s are possible, especially in Allegany, southwestern Steuben, and perhaps Cortland counties. Frost is not expected.

Wednesday may start with some sun, but thin clouds will quickly build in from the west. These clouds will thicken further in the afternoon. Rain will move in late, but the timing is uncertain. The further west, the higher the chances for rain before the sun sets. There are scenarios where the rain spreads across the region during the late afternoon. This should become more clear tomorrow.

Regardless, temperatures should mostly reach the mid 60s tomorrow. This is just a few degrees below the seasonal average.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast tueday may 17 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Quick Blast of Heat

Temperatures will take a quick and dramatic turn later this week.

Thursday should have rain showers around at least for the morning hours. If precipitation lingers into the midday and early afternoon, a few thunderstorms could pop up.

Either way, the afternoon should trend dry and sunnier, allowing temperatures to bump up into the low 70s.

Blustery south winds will develop on Friday with gusts of 30-40 mph, similar to today. Instead of the cooling effect of the wind today, these winds will pump warm, humid air into the region. Look for highs in the mid and upper 80s with dewpoints rising into the 60s.

Most of the area should stay dry on Friday, but a couple of isolated showers in the afternoon cannot be ruled out.

Friday night will be warm and muggy, with temperatures only falling to the mid 60s. That will get Saturday off and running for our first shot at 90 degrees. The current forecast of near 90 may even be on the conservative side, but there is a high degree of uncertainty in the position of an approaching cold front.

If the front is fast enough, late day thunderstorms will be possible, which could result in high temperatures not quite reaching their full potential. A later front may hold the rain and thunder off until Saturday night or even Sunday morning.

The uncertainty with the front has the temperature Sunday highly uncertain. Even if the front holds off until Sunday and temperatures push into the 70s early, by the end of the day, it will be much cooler.

By next Monday, we should be back where we are starting today with highs in the upper 50s, followed by a steady but less dramatic warming trend next week.

More Information:

» Finger Lakes Weather Radar

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast tueday may 17 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.