A cold front will move through the region this afternoon, triggering some more thunderstorm activity across the region.
Showers and storms are expected to begin developing during the afternoon over the western and central Finger Lakes. The storms will likely take a few hours to reach peak intensity, by which time they will be east of the region.
Still, an isolated severe storm is possible throughout the Finger Lakes, with a higher chance for a few scattered severe storms across Onondaga, Cortland, Tompkins, and Tioga counties.
There are several factors working against the severe thunderstorms today. First, stronger winds aloft are located behind the front, away from the developing storms. Without support from these winds, storms will have a harder time organizing and becoming severe.
Clouds this morning have stunted the temperatures, though sunshine is increasing ahead of the front. The warmer air is important both in that it will provide fuel for thunderstorm development and will enhance the low-level temperature and moisture profiles necessary for severe weather.
Overall, most areas will probably not see severe weather today, or even necessarily thunderstorms. Areas east of especially Cayuga Lake have a higher, but still only scattered threat.
Damaging winds and perhaps some hail will be the primary threat from these storms. The prime window of time for thunderstorms will be between 1-4 PM. By 4 PM, the majority of the thunderstorms should be east, with temperatures in the Finger Lakes falling to the 60s.
I will post pertinent updates in this post below. I anticipate posting 1-4 updates but should not need to go through the process of doing a full-out live blogging session. Be sure to check back with this post for updates.
3:53 PM – The window was brief, the conditions marginal, and the severe weather threat has passed the Finger Lakes with little fanfare. There is a severe thunderstorm warning for the Binghamton area, and further development to the east will continue to be possible…but for us in the FLX, the severe threat is over.
1:56 PM – A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for Steuben, Yates, Seneca, Cayuga, Onondaga, Cortland, Tompkins, Schuyler, Chemung, and Tioga Counties. The watch also extends further east into Central New York, and south through much of Pennsylvania and into Maryland and Virginia. As a whole, the watch expires at 9 PM, but our areas will be cut from the watch after just a couple hours.1:50 PM – Heavy showers are developing over the central Finger Lakes with showers behind the primary broken line. These do not have detectable lightning yet, but will shortly. The Storm Prediction Center is monitoring the area for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, but has yet to issue one.
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