Cloudy but quiet weather until some late week rain

finger lakes weather forecast monday may 23 2022 cloudy cooler
Sunshine may be hard to come by this week, but rain will hold off until Thursday night with mild, not hot temperatures beginning Tuesday. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

Cloudy and Cooler

The cold front that swept away the heat and humidity yesterday is now far to our east as high pressure builds into the Upper Great Lakes.

With the high to our west, cool north winds will blow today, keeping temperatures held down. The wind will not be overly strong, with speeds under 10 mph and gusts up to 20 mph.

With high pressure inbound, usually we would expect sunny skies. However, there is another piece to the puzzle.

Low pressure over the Southeastern United States is sending a spray of thin clouds northward in a broad southwesterly flow far above the surface. These clouds will build in through the morning and thicken into an overcast for the afternoon.

The lack of sunshine and north winds will hold temperatures to the low and mid 60s this afternoon.

By tomorrow morning, the high pressure system will move east, removing the northerly winds from the region. South and southeast winds will take over on Tuesday, except along the shore of Lake Ontario, where a lake breeze will kick in.

There should be a bit more in the way of sunshine on Tuesday, but still plenty of cloud cover for the sun to dodge and filter through. With the removal of the northerly winds, though, highs will mostly be in the upper 60s and low 70s.

Wednesday and Thursday look similar. Both days should have a large degree of cloud cover, though some glimpses of filtered sunshine should still be expected. Temperatures will warm a little more, but will not venture too far above the seasonal averages.

Morning lows will be in the mid 50s, which is 5-10 degrees above average. Afternoon highs will be in the low 70s, which is just a couple degrees warmer than average.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday may 23 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Some Rain, Warmer Weather

The best chance for rain this week will come Thursday night and through Friday.

A weather system will track into the area from the west. A few stray showers could arrive as soon as Thursday evening. More rain will move in during the overnight.

On and off rain showers will continue throughout Friday. A few rumbles of thunder may also be possible.

The low pressure system responsible for the rain will track into eastern Canada by the weekend, allowing high pressure off the East Coast to extend northwestward into our area.

This should result in a quiet weekend with a good deal of sunshine both Saturday and Sunday.

Meanwhile, an active weather pattern will set up across the middle of the nation. Warmer air will start to move northeastward between the high and the active storm track.

Highs Saturday should reach the mid 70s while Sunday makes it into the upper 70s. Hotter weather is expected early next week with highs rising through the 80s. While a bit early to count on it, making a run at 90 degrees for one or more days early next week is not out of the question.

Early next week looks relatively dry as well, though with heat and humidity back in place, pop-up thunderstorms will at least be something to consider. However, there will be a much better chance of rain late next week as the heat breaks again.

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday may 23 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.