Evening Thunderstorms
An increase in temperatures and humidity will also lead to thunderstorms tonight and Thursday, some of which will probably become severe.
For the daytime hours Wednesday, quiet conditions are expected. Skies are starting quite sunny across the region, but clouds from a thunderstorm complex in Canada may move in later this morning. This complex will be decaying, so there is some uncertainty in just how much cloud cover will make it into our area.
Regardless, fair weather clouds will also bubble up, so skies will be mixed with or without the Canadian clouds.
South and southeast winds will blow with light speeds of around 5 mph. Temperatures and humidity will come up, especially in the western reaches of the area.
The warmest temperatures will be from Rochester to Dansville to Batavia, where highs will be around 90 degrees. Upper 80s will surround that area and may follow I-390 and I-86 deep into Steuben County. Most of the Finger Lakes will end up in the mid 80s, with a few low 80s, mainly in Cortland County.
Afternoon dewpoints will make a similar west to east range, going from the upper 60s in the far west to the mid 50s in the far east.
This evening, showers and thunderstorms will fire up as some atmospheric energy moves through. These may initially start in the west but will quickly overspread the area by midnight. On and off thunderstorms will continue into the predawn hours.
A little hail or some gusty winds cannot be totally ruled out, especially early on this evening. For the most part, though, severe weather is not expected.
Thursday Severe Storms
That will not be the case Thursday afternoon, though there are still some uncertainties in everything coming together perfectly for a major event.
Temperatures will soar from lows in the mid 60s to early afternoon highs around 90 degrees. Dewpoints in the low and mid 70s will overspread the area from west to east, yielding some extreme amounts of instability in a narrow belt over the roughly western half of the region. To the east, instability will be high, but not as extreme.
As a reminder, instability is a measure of the fuel thunderstorms require for development.
The wind profiles through the lower and mid levels of the atmosphere are favorable for severe thunderstorm organization. These winds are fully adequate for severe thunderstorms, but not in the upper range of what we typically see in big events.
That being said, the wind profiles in the lowest 1000-2000 feet are especially strong for our area, raising the tornado threat to a higher than average degree.
During the mid-afternoon hours, thunderstorms should rapidly develop over Western New York and move east into the western Finger Lakes. Thunderstorms will initially remain cellular with a threat of hail, damaging winds, and possibly a tornado.
As the storms track east across our region, they will attempt to coalesce into a line. If this occurs, the damaging wind threat will increase, while the hail and tornado threats should decrease. However, by the time the line starts to really organize, it will encounter the less unstable air and should weaken.
This could potentially keep some of the individual cells isolated enough to continue the hail and tornado threat eastward, where the wind profiles will be even more supportive of those hazards.
If this sounds complex, it is because it is, and I am simply attempting to translate the science into a semi-understandable form. The truth is that it is even more complex than it sounds, as is often the case with severe thunderstorm events in our region.
So, the key messages I want you to take away from this are that severe thunderstorms are likely in our area Thursday afternoon, and a few of them could be especially intense. But, there are uncertainties at play and many areas may dodge the bullet of a memorable severe weather event. Hopefully that will be the case.
Weekend Weather and Next Week
The thunderstorms Thursday afternoon will be triggered by a passing cold front. A lingering shower will be possible behind the front early Friday morning. Otherwise, Friday will be a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the mid and upper 70s.
Another front will move through Friday night with little fanfare. Cooler air will settle in, leaving highs in the mid 60s Saturday despite ample sunshine. Both Friday and Saturday will have stiff northwest winds of 10-15 mph and gusts near 30 mph.
Sunday will also be sunny. After a cool start, mainly in the 40s, afternoon highs will be around 70 degrees.
Early next week, a familiar setup will take hold once again. With a large dome of heat and humidity to our west, it will be a question of tracking thunderstorm complexes and whether any of that heat and humidity spill over into the Finger Lakes.
Right now, thunderstorms will be possible both late Monday and Tuesday, though this remains highly uncertain. Tuesday is the most likely day to become hot, with highs currently expected to be around 90 degrees.
Highs in the 80s are more likely for the latter half of next week, again with at least some chances for rain and thunderstorms.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
» Get the FLX Weather Mobile App
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Don’t Miss an Important Update
