A Few Showers
Cooler, more comfortable air has built into the Finger Lakes behind Tuesday’s cold front and will stick around for a couple of days.
A secondary cold front is moving through this morning, reinforcing the airmass overhead. This front is weak and will stall out nearby for today and tomorrow.
A couple of small impulses of atmospheric energy will move along the front, bringing a few stray showers as they pass through.
One such impulse can be seen on radar this morning over Michigan. While the showers currently showing there will dissipate before arriving here, some new showers will pop up this afternoon as the impulse approaches.
Many areas will not see rain today. The showers that do pop up will be small in size and scattered in distribution. Even those areas that see a shower will only see a brief period of rain and low amounts. A couple rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out, though.
The showers will quickly dissipate as the evening approaches, but a few more showers will be possible overnight as another lobe of energy moves through.
Thursday will follow a similar pattern, but the afternoon rain showers should be even more sparse.
Light northwest winds will blow today with speeds around 5 mph. Thursday will have winds just over 5 mph, still from the northwest.
These winds will keep temperatures in check, with highs today around 80 degrees, while tomorrow tops out in the mid and upper 70s. Nighttime temperatures both days will mostly drop into the 50s.
Friday will be a quiet day, with the frontal boundary out of the area and high pressure taking over. Skies will be a mix of sun and fair weather clouds with just a whisper of a northwesterly breeze.
Temperatures will add back a couple of degrees but will still be comfortable. Highs will top out around 80 degrees.
While winds will be nearly calm much of Saturday, there will be a southerly component to what wind there is, at least until the afternoon lake breeze kicks in off Lake Ontario.
Temperatures will take a bigger jump upward with highs well into the mid and upper 80s. Skies will be mostly sunny with just a few small, stray clouds from time to time.
Temperatures will make a run at 90 degrees on Sunday. Many places could end up going over 90 degrees, but there will be some afternoon cloud cover that could keep temperatures from reaching their full potential.
Rain showers will not be far away to the south. While the forecast remains dry Sunday, there is an outside possibility for a few showers to sneak in, especially across the southern half of the region.
The forecast confidence degrades as we head into early next week. Rain and thunderstorms will become more likely, but it is not a certainty. Monday and Tuesday both have a chance for showers and storms.
If it does not rain, hot weather may persist with highs both days capable of reaching the 90s. Since rain is more likely, however, I have currently set temperatures in the 80s.
Hot and humid weather is likely to persist for much of next week and possibly the week after. This should at least give us more of a chance for rain and thunderstorms, though only time will tell how often, how widespread, and how heavy any of the rain will be.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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