Dry weather Friday ahead of another round of unsettled weather

finger lakes weather forecast friday august 19 2022 sun clouds high pressure rain thunderstorms
Friday will be sunny and dry but rain chances will increase this weekend, culminating with widespread rain and thunder on Monday. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuill]

Friday-Saturday Weather

An area of high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic is extending its influence north into our region.

The result will be the first day this week, and the only upcoming day, with almost no rain expected in the area.

Skies are mostly clear to start the day and will remain quite sunny throughout. Small fair weather clouds will bubble up later this morning and linger well into the afternoon, but these should have little impact on the available sunshine.

There remains a very small chance for one or two of these clouds to grow enough to produce a spit of rain, but that would be a hyper-localized and very brief phenomenon.

Temperatures will take advantage of the sunshine and warm into low and mid 80s this afternoon. Dewpoints will remain comfortable in the 50s, and winds will be light, starting from the southwest and gradually turning clockwise to the northwest.

Tonight, the wind will swing all the way around to the south as the high pressure moves out over the Atlantic. Skies will be mostly clear outside of a few passing thin clouds. The southerly winds will hold temperatures near or above 60 degrees for most areas.

Morning sunshine should help temperatures quickly rise Saturday morning, aided by the south wind. By the early afternoon, mid and upper 80s will be common. A few places, mostly in the vicinity of I-90, may hit 90 degrees.

Humidity will tick upwards, which should help trigger a few scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. These will move from southwest to northeast as individual cells or a couple of small clusters. A progressive forward speed should prevent excessive rain, and unfavorable atmospheric conditions should prevent severe weather outside of a few blustery gusts.

The showers and storms will not necessarily dissipate after sunset, with chances for rain continuing into the evening hours. Eventually, the rain should dissipate overnight.

As usual, there will be plenty of areas that get missed by the storm cells, leading to highly variable rain amounts and plenty of empty or near-empty rain gauges.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast friday august 19 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Rain Chances Increase

A weather disturbance will move into the area on Sunday, leading to an increase in showers and thunderstorms.

Precipitation in the morning is somewhat uncertain. If there are showers and storms about, the western half of the region is more favored. The coverage of the precipitation should increase and spread east during the afternoon and into the evening.

Since this is still a couple days out, there are some inherent uncertainties in the timing and location of how the rain evolves.

Rain showers and some thunderstorms will likely continue into Monday morning, increasing again in the afternoon. Some of these could be slow moving and the atmosphere will be favorable for downpours, so locally excessive rain is a concern.

A cold front will move through on Tuesday with another round of afternoon showers and a few rumbles of thunder. In all, between Sunday and Tuesday, most areas should see some beneficial rainfall.

The weather will settle for the end of next week with either sun and clouds or chances for brief, stray showers. Temperatures will retreat to the 70s with the rain early in the week, but will push back into the 80s thereafter.

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast friday august 19 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.

2 Responses

  1. Leo Vincent

    will the aurora borealis be visible in the finger lakes region tonight – thursday?

    • Meteorologist Drew Montreuil

      Skies will be clear tonight, so if they show, you should be able to see them. The rest of those days will probably be cloudy, except perhaps next Wednesday. I have no idea if they will show, though. About all I know about Aurora forecasts are that they are very uncertain and unreliable still.