From Clouds to Sun
A large area of low pressure along the Mid-Atlantic coast, partially the remains of Hurricane Ian, continues to spin clouds and moisture towards the Finger Lakes.
This system has tracked westward since yesterday and is now close enough to throw a few showers into our region. One such shower has already moved through parts of the area this morning, and more are likely to come.
However, there is also a large dome of dry air that stretches from northern New England into the Ohio Valley. This dry air will help prevent too much rain from moving in, even as the flow of moisture from the Atlantic attempts to erode away at the dry dome.
As showers move into the area from the east-southeast, they will encounter the dry air, weaken, and dissipate. Therefore, the further northwest, the lower the chances for rain. Chemung and Tioga Counties remain the most likely areas to see numerous on and off showers throughout the day. The rest of the region should see more sporadic, briefer showers in a southeast to northwest gradient.
There may be some breaks in the clouds, again especially in the northern and western areas. Further south and east, the clouds will remain thick much of the time. Low 60s are expected for afternoon highs from Syracuse to Penn Yan to Dansville and northward. South of these areas, highs will be in the mid and upper 50s.
Cloud cover will begin to break up overnight, allowing temperatures mostly into the low 40s. A few pockets in the typically cooler and sooner to clear western Southern Tier will reach the upper 30s.
Any lingering clouds early Wednesday morning will quickly move out, leaving sun-filled skies for the majority of the day. A light north wind, which will carry over from today, will keep it from getting too warm, but highs should shoot up to the mid and upper 60s.
Skies will remain clear Wednesday night, but winds will turn lightly to the southwest. That wind will push warmer air in, keeping nighttime temperatures in the mid and upper 40s.
A Few Showers, Cool Weekend
The logjam that has been in the atmosphere with the remains of Ian will be far removed by Thursday, allowing a more typical and progressive weather pattern to resume. This will bring in our next weather maker in late Thursday into Friday.
Clouds will mix with sunshine on Thursday before a few scattered showers move through late in the afternoon. Not all areas will see rain on Thursday, and those that do should only see light, brief amounts.
Winds at the surface will be nearly calm, but southwest winds aloft will continue to push warm air into the region. Many areas will break into the low 70s on Thursday, and some of the typically warmer areas, such as the I-90 corridor, may reach the mid 70s.
Nighttime temperatures will stick close to 50 degrees Thursday night, then rise into the 60s early Friday morning. By the afternoon, a cold front will move through, causing a quick drop in temperatures. By the late afternoon, upper 40s and low 50s will be taking over.
Accompanying the cold front will be numerous rain showers. None of the rain looks overly heavy, but the showers may be persistent for part of the day. This will become clearer in the coming days.
Behind the front, northwest winds will set up with a response from Lake Ontario. Lake effect clouds and a few showers Friday night into early Saturday should help prop temperatures up from getting really cold. Still, mid 30s will be possible across the Southern Tier, where the lake will have less influence.
Any showers should quickly dissipate Saturday morning, leaving a mix of sun and clouds. Highs will only make it into the low 50s with breezy northwest winds. Sunday will be a bit warmer with highs in the upper 50s and a fair amount of sunshine.
Early next week will continue the trend, with ample sunshine on Monday and highs poking back above 60 degrees. Slow but steady warming will be possible for the rest of the week. A few showers will be possible towards the middle of next week with a better chance for rain next weekend.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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