An elongated high pressure system extends along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts this morning.
Clear skies dominate the region with only some river valley fog in the Southern Tier to interrupt it. A slight southerly breeze has developed across most of the region, keeping temperatures in the vicinity of 40 degrees. East of Cayuga Lake, mid 30s are common thanks to lighter winds overnight.
As the sun climbs the bright blue morning sky, temperatures will take off in a hurry. Backed by southwest winds of 5-10 mph, afternoon highs will top out around 70 degrees throughout the region. Some higher elevations may stick to the upper 60s.
Clear skies and southwest winds will persist into the evening hours. Temperatures will be slow to drop, with upper 40s and low 50s by midnight. Thin clouds will build in from the west thereafter, and the temperature should not drop much more, with mid 40s across the Southern Tier and Central New York, and lows around 50 near and north of the lakes.
The clouds will be a constant presence tomorrow and will gradually increase in thickness. The sun will filter through at times, but ultimately, it will end up a gray day.
A few stray showers may make their way into the area during the late afternoon and evening hours. Anything that falls should be light and brief.
Without the backing of the sun, temperatures will lose a couple of degrees off the highs. It will still be plenty warm, though, with mid and upper 60s tomorrow afternoon. Winds will be stronger, coming from nearly due south at 10-15 mph. Gusts could approach 30 mph at times.
The wind will increase a bit more Wednesday night, especially over higher elevations. The south winds and ample cloud cover will hold nighttime temperatures in the 50s.
An area of rain will approach from the west by early Thursday morning. This rain will slowly make its way eastward and should expand and intensify as it does so.
The best chance for steady, heavy rain will come across the eastern half of the region during the afternoon hours. A few rumbles of thunder will even be possible. The rain will depart to the east during the evening hours.
Many areas will have a chance of an inch or more of rain. Some localized ponding of water in urban settings will be possible if storm drains become leaf-clogged, but flooding is not expected to be a concern.
South and southeast winds will continue to be strong ahead of the axis of the rainfall, which will be a cold front. Over the eastern half of the region, gusts could spend a couple of hours over 40 mph. As the front moves through, the winds will suddenly and significantly drop.
Temperatures on Thursday will make it to the low 60s in the morning but should drop into the 50s for the afternoon. Behind this system, highs on Friday will mainly be in the upper 50s.
Friday will have a mix of sun and clouds and some blustery southwest winds. The winds will be strongest over the western half of the region, but most gusts should remain under 30 mph.
On Saturday, the wind will be southerly at around 10 mph and warmer air will start to push back in. A few places may start the day in the mid and upper 30s, but by the afternoon, highs will be pushing back to 65 degrees or warmer.
Another system will quickly pass through on Sunday with a few showers, mainly in the morning hours. The rest of the day should have some sunshine with highs in the upper 50s.
Following quickly will be a stronger, more complex storm system early next week. Another round of heavy rain is possible, though highly uncertain at this time. Regardless of the details, cold air will invade for the middle of next week, with a couple of days with highs in the 40s.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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