A few showers amidst chilly air

finger lakes weather forecast tuesday october 18 2022 sun clouds showers windy cold
A few showers will be possible over the next few days, but for the most part, it will just be windy and chilly. [Photo by John Gregoire]

Persistent Low

A broad area of low pressure remains locked in place to our northwest over Lake Huron.

Dry air has wrapped around the low and into the Finger Lakes. Most areas are starting off clear and cool this morning as a result. A few pockets in Central New York have even slipped into the upper 20s.

Some moisture will try to push in from the west today as the low wobbles about. This will lead to an increase in fair weather clouds and a few scattered showers. The best chance for rain will come from about midday through the afternoon.

finger lakes weather water vapor satellite image showing dry air wrapping around low pressure
This water vapor satellite-radar combination image shows dry air in reds and browns wrapping around the low from the Midwest, through the Ohio Valley, and into New York State. Meanwhile, the low itself shows up clearly with rain and snow spiraling throughout the Great Lakes. Click to enlarge.

The rain showers that develop will be small and brief, lasting only a few minutes at a time. A little small hail or graupel cannot be ruled out.

Temperatures will mostly be between 45-50 degrees today. Some low 50s are possible in the northeastern Finger Lakes, while to the southwest, parts of the Southern Tier may not reach 45 degrees.

Southwest winds will blow slightly over 10 mph today. Gusts just above 30 mph will be possible across the southwestern half of the region, while gusts to the northwest stay just below 30 mph.

Tonight, dry air should take back over, leading to clear, quiet, and cold conditions once again. Wind gusts over 15 mph will help prevent widespread frost, but temperatures will still drop into the low and mid 30s. Protecting sensitive plant life is advised.

Wednesday will be much the same as today. However, the moisture will be a bit deeper, so more in the way of clouds and showers are expected. The rain should still be scattered and generally brief, but there should be more of it about. Small hail and graupel will continue to be possible.

The wind tomorrow will be similar to today as well, coming in from the southwest with gusts around 30 mph. Cool air will remain in place, with highs a couple degrees shy of today’s thanks to the extra clouds. This will mean fewer areas reach 50 degrees and more struggle to break past 45 degrees.

Some lake effect showers will be possible Wednesday evening as the band from Lake Erie crosses the region. The northwestern half of the area will have the best chance at some spotty precipitation. A few areas could see a couple snowflakes mixing in with the rain.

Wednesday night will be just as cold as the preceding nights, with low and mid 30s commonplace.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast tuesday october 18 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

From Cold to Mild

The chances for rain will mostly diminish on Thursday, but clouds are expected to remain in place. Mostly cloudy skies throughout the day will couple with another day of blustery southwest winds. Highs are only expected to reach the mid 40s as a result.

Skies will gradually clear out Thursday night and winds will take a slight jog to a more southerly direction. The persistent low pressure system will dissipate and high pressure will take over.

Friday will have a mix of sun and clouds as these transitions take place. No rain is expected and warmer air will begin to push into the region. High temperatures will average out to around 60 degrees.

Friday night will once again have clear skies, but steady south winds should keep temperatures in most places in the 40s. This will get Saturday off to a quick start with afternoon highs pushing into the upper 60s. Few, if any, clouds are expected.

Sunday will add on a couple more degrees and many areas will be around 70 degrees. Clouds will increase during the afternoon, however. If these clouds thicken sooner, temperatures may be a couple of degrees cooler.

An area of low pressure will pass by on Monday with a few showers, but at this time, not much in the way of rain is expected. With the extra clouds, temperatures will get knocked back into the low or perhaps mid 60s.

A stretch of dry, warm weather is expected for much of next week. Daily highs should be well into the 60s and a few places may pop up into the low 70s at times. The weather looks more unsettled towards the end of the week, followed by average to slightly above average temperatures for the end of October and first days of November.

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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.