Chilly Air Mass
A persistent area of low pressure spinning just to our northwest will continue to keep our weather chilly, windy, and at times a bit showery.
The low has not moved since yesterday and remains centered over the Georgian Bay off Lake Huron. Dry air had spiraled back into the area overnight, but now moisture is pushing its way into the Finger Lakes. Clouds are increasing, and temperatures have come up slightly since reaching lows during the deep of night.
For now, there is no precipitation in the area. However, an area of rain and snow showers over western Pennsylvania will track northeast toward the region over the second half of the morning. These should be weakening as they do so, so only scattered precipitation is expected. Yes, a few areas could see snowflakes from this.
Precipitation this afternoon will be scattered and much of the time it will probably be dry. Temperatures will warm enough to ensure whatever falls will do so as rain, except perhaps in the highest elevations of the western Southern Tier.
The Calendar will be on sale before the end of the week… maybe tonight!
Showers will be a bit more organized this evening off Lake Erie, especially across the northern half of the region. There is uncertainty in how much precipitation will develop, though, and there may not be a noticeable difference compared to the sporadic precipitation this afternoon.
Outside of the showers, some breaks of sun are possible this afternoon. Showers may also contain some small hail or graupel.
Southwest winds will continue to be blustery, with gusts up around, and locally above 30 mph. Most areas will stick to the mid and upper 40s today, but the typically warmer northern Finger Lakes will top out around 50 degrees.
Clouds tonight may keep temperatures a touch warmer than the last couple of nights, especially across the northern Finger Lakes, where they will be the most prevalent. Lows here will stick to the upper 30s, with mid 30s and pockets of low 30s elsewhere.
Most of Thursday is expected to be dry, albeit on the cloudy side. Persistent southwest winds will continue with gusts up to 30 mph once again. Temperatures will be at their coldest of the week, with most areas close to 45 degrees while higher elevations get stuck in the low 40s.
Late in the day, a front will move through as the low pressure system finally begins to track east. For many areas, precipitation may hold off until near or after sunset. By this time, temperatures will be in the upper 30s and low 40s, so some snowflakes could mix in with the rain showers.
Flipping a Switch
Skies will clear out Thursday night, allowing temperatures back into the low and mid 30s, with colder pockets, early Friday morning. That will be the last of the cold for a while, though.
South-southwest winds on Friday will blow at speeds up to 10 mph. This time, the winds will bring in warmer air. With plenty of sunshine throughout the day, temperatures will make a noticeable jump to highs around 60 degrees.
It will remain clear Friday night, but temperatures will stick near or above 40 degrees for most areas. The best chance for some upper 30s will be across the Southern Tier.
Saturday itself should also have plenty of sunshine, though some thin clouds may work in late in the day. South winds will remain, with gentle speeds under 10 mph. Afternoon highs will push into the upper 60s and a few places could hit 70 degrees.
A weak area of low pressure will develop along the Mid-Atlantic coast later Sunday into Monday. This system will lead to increasing clouds on Sunday, and possibly even a few late afternoon showers in the southeastern Finger Lakes.
There will be a better chance for showers Sunday night into Monday. There are uncertainties about how much rain will make it into the Finger Lakes, and it may well stay mostly dry.
Temperatures will be held just a few degrees cooler by the clouds, with highs Sunday and Monday in the mid 60s. Overnight lows will be well into the 40s, and by Monday night, may not dip below 50 degrees.
Tuesday looks to have a mix of sun and clouds with highs around 70 degrees. A quick moving system will bring a few showers next Wednesday, but temperatures should still be well into the 60s.
Late next week and towards the weekend, rain chances will increase and temperatures will take a slight step back. Near to above average temperatures are favored into early November, but the uncertainty grows after the weekend.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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