Warm to… Not As Warm
A series of low pressure systems are riding along a cold front that extends through the Upper Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley.
Meanwhile, a small low still resides off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic with high pressure blocking its movement from its position over far eastern Canada and the North Atlantic.
The Finger Lakes region is caught in the middle of all these systems, each with its own influence on our weather today. In the end, though, the impacts from the weather will be quite minimal.
Skies are mixed across the region this morning with a few clouds in the southeast from the coastal low, and more clouds across the south and west ahead of the cold front. Elsewhere, there are patches of clear skies, especially across the middle and northern parts of the region.
Temperatures range through the 50s and into the low 60s to start this morning. With south winds at 10-15 mph, even partial breaks of sunshine will help temperatures push back toward the upper 60s and low 70s again today.
The best chances for sun will come this morning into the midday hours. Clouds will thicken this afternoon as the cold front approaches. Scattered showers are likely in the area after 3 PM and into the early evening hours.
The rain will be hit or miss, and individual showers will not last too long. The best chance for steadier showers will be west of Canandaigua Lake. Rainfall amounts will be light.
By Midnight, the wind will be out of the northwest with speeds of 10-15 mph. The wind speed will back off Thursday morning and become light by Thursday afternoon.
Clouds will remain thick through the overnight but will break up during the day Thursday. By the afternoon, it should be quite sunny. Morning lows will drop to the mid 40s and afternoon highs will be in the lower half of the 50s. This is much closer to average for late October than the temperatures have been so far this week.
Dry Through the Weekend
On Friday, a small disturbance will bring an area of thin overcast through the region. It is uncertain how much sun will be able to shine through the thin clouds, but it will be limited. The clouds will be persistent throughout the day, but no rain is expected.
Winds on Friday will be nearly calm. After a start near the seasonal averages in the mid 30s, high temperatures will work their way up to the mid 50s.
The clouds will move out quickly Friday evening. With clear skies and calm winds, temperatures will fall into the lower half of the 30s. But sun-filled skies Saturday and a light southerly flow will warm morning temperatures in a hurry.
High temperatures Saturday afternoon should push 60 degrees. A light south wind will blow Saturday night, possibly keeping temperatures a couple degrees warmer than Friday night.
Sunday will have sun to start but increasing clouds during the afternoon hours. Highs should break into the low 60s for many areas.
The next weather system will arrive sometime Monday or Monday night. There are still questions about how much rain will fall and when. With Monday being Halloween, this will be something to monitor closely for Trick-or-Treaters. Temperatures will remain warm at least, with daytime highs Monday around 60 and overnight lows around 50s.
Slightly above average temperatures will be a fixture for the first part of November as well. Temperatures should remain in the neighborhood of 60 degrees through at least next week. Beyond that, there is more spread in the possible temperatures shown on the models, but near or above average temperatures are still more favored than cold temperatures.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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