Tropical Storm Nicole
Nicole made landfall in eastern Florida overnight and is beginning to turn towards the north.
Meanwhile, high pressure is centered off the coast of New England and will supply us with one final sunny day today.
Clouds from Nicole are not expected to arrive in the Finger Lakes until around or after sunset, so most of the day will be sunny. Just a few wisps of thin clouds are expected here and there. South winds will push temperatures into the 60s throughout the region.
No rain is expected tonight even as the clouds thicken. South winds will remain in place, leading to a mild night. By tomorrow morning, many areas will still be at or above 50 degrees.
Rain will spread north through the region Friday morning. This rain will be out ahead of the center of low pressure and will constitute a “first wave” of precipitation. A few downpours will be possible.
As the center of the low approaches, the rain will probably end for a time in the late afternoon and first part of the evening. Rainfall from this first wave will generally be between a half and one inch.
Temperatures Friday will be in the low 60s but may rise to the mid 60s during the evening, especially for areas east of Keuka Lake. Winds will also be a bit blustery in these areas, but gusts should remain under 30 mph.
The center of low pressure will lift northeast Friday night. Immediately behind the low will be a second area of rainfall. This may include a band of downpours, which will cross the Finger Lakes between about 10 PM and 4 AM. By dawn Saturday, most of the rain should be to the east.
Total rain amounts, including both portions of the event, will generally be between 1-2 inches. The chances for any given location to go over two inches is probably under 50%, but there will likely be areas that do so.
Widespread higher rain totals are not expected thanks to the intrusion of dry air that should end precipitation for a time, and due to the quick speed with which this system will come and go. Flooding should be limited to isolated pockets of poor drainage, especially if leaves clog storm drains.
The lowest rain totals will likely be across the southeastern quadrant of the Finger Lakes, including Elmira, Ithaca, and Cortland. It is not unreasonable to think some of these areas could see under an inch of total rain.
All in all, with a lack of strong winds and minimal flooding potential, this system will do more good than harm. After a dry October, much of the area is creeping back toward drought status, so the soaking rain will be beneficial.
Cold Air Moves In
Temperatures will fall into the low 50s by Saturday morning and may not add more than a couple of degrees during the daytime hours. West and northwest winds will blow at around 10 mph on Saturday, with gusts around 25 mph, importing cooler air into the region.
Much of Saturday will end up dry, though a new batch of showers may move in late in the afternoon and continue into the evening and overnight.
Sunday morning temperatures will be in the mid 30s and afternoon highs will only reach the low 40s. Lake effect precipitation will be scattered about the region. Most of this will fall as rain, but snow will mix in late and become the dominant precipitation type Sunday night.
The lake effect will consolidate to a small area southeast of Lake Ontario Sunday night and will persist into Monday. While most of the region will stay dry during this time, a dusting of snow will be possible in eastern Wayne, northern Cayuga, and northern Onondaga counties.
Monday will start out with widespread temperatures in the 20s and low 30s. Afternoon highs will struggle to reach 40 degrees. Outside of any lake flakes, skies will remain mostly cloudy.
Tuesday will not be much different, only without any lake effect precipitation. Skies will be cloudy, and highs will only be around 40 degrees. Morning lows should be well into the 20s for most areas.
A weather system will move through on Wednesday. If precipitation arrives early enough in the morning, it could start out as some snow. Most of the precipitation should fall as a cold rain, though. Precipitation amounts, at this point, look low.
Cold air and lake effect precipitation will be common behind this system late next week and into the weekend.
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
