Dry and not as cold through Thanksgiving

finger lakes weather forecast monday november 21 2022 sun clouds not as cold
Temperatures will slowly rise over the next few days with 40s becoming widespread. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Weather Leading Up to Thanksgiving

High pressure centered along the coast of Virginia and Maryland will bring dry and slightly warmer weather for the holiday week.

While the high to our south will be the primary influence on our weather, low pressure well to the north in Canada will also have a role to play.

For today, the low will send some clouds into our region from time to time. As such, skies will be a mix of sunny periods and times of clouds. The clouds that move through should be somewhat thin, allowing at least some sun to filter through at times.

The second impact the low will have today will be to enhance the winds across the region. While not as strong as yesterday’s winds, a south-southwest breeze will exceed 10 mph with occasional gusts approaching 30 mph.

Warmer air will start to seep into the region on these winds. Most places will end up a couple of degrees on either side of 40 degrees today. Some higher elevations may stick to the mid 30s.

Tonight, a small frontal boundary rotating around the Canadian low will drop southeast through the region. This may touch off a few light flurries in the late evening and overnight hours. Winds will briefly turn to the northwest, but the high pressure system will see that winds return to the southwest by sunrise.

Temperatures to start Tuesday will range through the 20s. As usual, the Southern Tier will be coolest with mid 20s and colder pockets. Upper 20s will spread across most of the remainder of the region, with a few of the warmest lakeshore and urban areas staying near 30 degrees.

Tuesday as a whole will not be too different from today. Sunshine will again mix with and filter through cloudy periods and no precipitation will fall.

The wind will be lighter, with speeds around or just over 5 mph. Top gusts will be a gentle 10-20 mph. Temperatures will nudge up a couple more degrees, reaching the low and mid 40s.

Again Tuesday night, a subtle disturbance will pass through with just an isolated, stray flurry or two. Overnight lows will be a couple degrees warmer, most between 25-30 degrees.

Wednesday will follow the pattern, with highs a little warmer and mostly in the mid 40s. Sunshine will mix with clouds and no precipitation will fall.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday november 21 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and the Weekend Weather

The weather will turn more active late in the week, but not until after a quiet Thanksgiving Day. However, signs of the impending changes will be present on Thursday.

Thanksgiving Day will start off sunny with temperatures again in the 25-30 degree range. During the morning, clouds will move in from the southwest. By the midday or early afternoon, skies should be overcast and will remain as such through the afternoon.

Nonetheless, high temperatures will again make it into the mid 40s with light southeast winds in place. The wind will increase to around 10 mph Thursday night, which combined with the clouds, will hold temperatures in the 30s.

A strengthening area of low pressure is expected to track northeastward through the Ohio Valley and into our region on Black Friday. While precipitation type is not 100 percent certain yet, rain is most likely for Friday.

Friday night into Saturday is less certain as the low slows its speed. There are several possibilities from here, including coastal redevelopment. Colder air should gradually make it in and at least some of the rain may change to snow on Saturday.

The chances for a moderate to heavy snowfall Friday night into Saturday cannot be dismissed given the heavy travel on those days. However, at current, the models are trending away from those possibilities. Instead, the chances for all rain, or simply some snow mixing in at the tail end of this event, are increasing.

This system should be out of the region by Sunday, leaving open a window for easy holiday travel before next week.

Needless to say, I will be watching closely and keeping you informed of the latest information without any drama or hype. Stay tuned.  

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More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday november 21 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

finger lakes weather calendar limited quantities
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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.