A strong area of low pressure north of the Great Lakes is butting up against a strong high pressure over the North Atlantic.
The result has been a noticeable increase in wind speeds overnight, coming in from the south. The wind will kick up one more notch this morning as the cold front associated with the low draws near.
Wind gusts of 40-50 mph are likely through the morning and early afternoon. The higher elevations across Onondaga, northern Cortland, and Cayuga counties will see the strongest gusts, which could eclipse 50 mph in these select areas. Wind advisories are in effect for the entire region.
The rain is taking its time moving east, but will eventually arrive this morning. The further east, the longer it stays dry this morning. Several hours of steady rain are likely once it begins. As the front moves through during the early to midafternoon, a narrow band of heavy rain and strong winds may try to develop.
Steady rain will come to an end shortly after the frontal passage, with most areas ending between 2-5 PM. Some higher elevations could see a little wet snow mix in as the rain ends with temperatures crashing from midday highs near 50 back into the 30s.
The wind will subside somewhat behind the front as well, turning to the west and dropping to gusts of 25-35 mph.
As temperatures continue to drop this evening, some bands of snow off Lake Erie will make their way into the southern two-thirds of the region. These will only stick around for a couple of hours but may produce some briefly tricky travel. Accumulations should remain an inch or less with the bands quickly moving south into Pennsylvania and dissipating overnight.
Nighttime temperatures will bottom out mostly in the mid 20s.
As the sun comes up tomorrow, so too will the winds once again. West winds will gust over 40 mph at times Thursday morning but will then drop again for the afternoon. By the late afternoon, gusts should be under 30 mph.
Skies will be a mix of sun and clouds with lake snows from Lake Ontario staying just north of the region. It is not out of the question that extreme northeast Wayne county, extreme northern Cayuga County, and extreme northern Onondaga county could see a little of this snow from time to time.
Temperatures on Thursday will be chilly with highs in the mid 30s. Evening temperatures will quickly drop back into the 20s but will not drop too far as light south winds take over during the night.
Weekend Weather & Beyond
Friday will be a quiet day with no precipitation, lighter winds, and a mix of sun and clouds. High temperatures will make it into the mid 40s.
For much of the day, winds will be light at 5-10 mph. Late in the afternoon, the wind will start to pick up and will increase to 10-15 mph overnight. Like today, the strongest winds will be over higher terrain, and gusts will increase to 30-40 mph by dawn Saturday.
Showers will move in on Saturday as another weather system moves through. The rain should be less widespread and not as heavy as today, but on-and-off showers are possible throughout the day.
South winds will continue to increase with gusts over 40 mph possible throughout the day, and especially along an afternoon cold front. Winds will turn to the west northwest late Saturday and will gradually drop Saturday night.
Lake snows are not expected in our region behind this system, with no snow off Erie and Lake Ontario’s snow again staying just north of the area. Sunday, therefore, should have a fair amount of sunshine, helping temperatures in the upper 30s.
Quiet weather will persist into Monday with a mix of sun and clouds. Highs are likely to add a couple of degrees, topping out at least around 40 degrees. There are some indications it could be warmer, though.
The next system will roll in on Tuesday. This could start as some snow, but the confidence in that is low. The window of opportunity for snow seems small at this early stage and most of what falls will probably be rain.
Winds, at this point, do not look overly strong with this system.
An active weather pattern is expected to continue late next week and beyond. One difference will be generally colder temperatures, which will open up the opportunity for some snow. There are no specific snow threats I am watching currently, but a cold, active pattern always bears watching.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.