Sun to Gloom
High pressure is departing off the coast of New England this morning as an area of unsettled weather slides eastward toward our region.
Skies are clear to start the day, but temperatures are not too cold thanks to some south winds. However, the sunshine will not last too long, with clouds racing eastward through the Upper Great Lakes.
A few hours of sunshine are likely this morning before the clouds move in and increase. Some sunlight may still be able to filter through the clouds at times, so it will not be a completely gloomy afternoon. No rain is expected, either.
Steady south winds will blow at speeds up to 10 mph during the daytime hours. This will push temperatures into the low and mid 40s this afternoon.
The clouds will thicken this evening and winds will increase slightly, especially over higher terrain. Temperatures will range through the 30s, with the coldest temperatures across the Southern Tier and Central New York, while the warmest air stays in the greater Rochester area. These temperatures will hold steady overnight.
Towards sunrise, the first batch of scattered, light showers will move in. Most of these will be rain, but a few stray snowflakes could mix in.
Tuesday will be dominated by thick clouds, spits of drizzle, and occasional brief showers. The rain should increase in coverage during the evening and overnight, but it will still not be a steady, persistent rain, so rainfall amounts will remain low.
Winds will be light with this system, coming in from the southeast at under 10 mph on Tuesday. Temperatures will meander around the mid 40s but should generally be a degree or two warmer than today. Nighttime temperatures will not drop much, with lows near or slightly above 40 degrees.
Gloom Back to Sun
Gloomy weather will continue into Wednesday and Thursday. Both days will have plenty of cloud cover and occasional showers. Like Tuesday, the rain will not be widespread or steady, but drizzly conditions may be persistent.
Of the two days, the rain looks more persistent on Wednesday. By Thursday afternoon, conditions may start to dry out.
Warmer air will seep into the area on Wednesday with many areas getting near or above 50 degrees. Winds will remain light from the south until turning calm Wednesday afternoon. Late in the day, a light northwest wind will pick up.
These winds will bring cooler air back into the area, but slowly. Overnight lows Wednesday night will still barely be into the 30s, and highs on Thursday will be around 40 degrees.
Sunshine should start to mix back in by Friday, though there is a weather system expected over the Mid-Atlantic that will need to be monitored for at least some clouds. High temperatures will stick to the 30s.
By the weekend, sunshine should continue to increase while temperatures potentially decrease. It will not be too cold, though, with highs in the mid 30s. There is also a chance, however, that temperatures may end up warmer.
Active weather looks possible during next week, but it is too early to pinpoint any details.
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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Ken White
Hi Drew – It’s Ken White with the City Club of Ithaca.
I would love to learn more about the lake enhanced drizzle ‘spits’ we saw yesterday (Wed) afternoon here in Ithaca after the morning rain moved out to the NE. I never realized that moisture from the slow moving low was enhanced by Lake Ontario. After a few sunny breaks, ‘lake effect’ in the form of a wet, continuous mist was predominent most of the afternoon. The ‘spits’ you accurately predicted are occurring Thursday at noon SE of Syracuse into PA (east of I-81).
I ask as I just posted our monthly water levels update for the Thousand Islands Assn. Ironically it included a brief spotlight feature on water evaporation in the fall, which accounts for 5% of the total monthly outflow from Lake Ontario. The focus was primarily on the lake effect snow event which hit Buffalo and Watertown areas on November 19th through the 21st. While I mentioned some lake effect arrives as normal rain bands, I would love to share this lake enhanced drizzle phenomenon.
Here is the link to our article. When you have time (and are not shipping calendars), take a look…scroll down to the Evaporation and Lake Effect section FYI for a quick scan of what I wrote and graphics I used. I would add any “Lake Enhanced Drizzle” info you could provide at the end and of course give you credit at FLX. Your posts the last few days were an eye opener, and cleaning my gutters during this lake effect (aka lake defect) yesterday was definitely educational.
https://www.thousandislandsassociation.com/water-levels-nov-dec-2022-river-talk-full-article/
Many thanks…Ken…