Weather Through Wednesday
A mild weather pattern will continue for a few more days before temperatures return closer to average.
High temperatures today will range through the mid and upper 40s. A few places may hit 50 degrees. This will especially be possible if some afternoon sun pokes through the otherwise cloudy skies.
The best chance for some breaks in the clouds will be across the Southern Tier.
Winds today will be light out of the west on the north side of high pressure extending along the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts. These winds will have a more southerly origin, though, and have already had a warming effect on our temperatures.
The wind will become calm for a time this evening before turning to the southeast. Any breaks in the clouds will fill back in this evening, but no precipitation is expected during the daytime or evening hours today.
The first rain showers should not enter the area until around dawn on Tuesday. The rain will quickly become widespread and steady through Tuesday morning as a warm front lifts into the region. The rain will persist into the afternoon before gradually moving out.
There is some question with the position of the front, especially later in the afternoon and through Tuesday night. The front should make it north of the northern ends of the Finger Lakes, but may not make it all the way to Lake Ontario. Tuesday night, the front will sink south, making it roughly halfway between Lake Ontario and the Pennsylvania border.
Low pressure will ride along the front and bring another period of widespread, steady rain in on Wednesday. As the low passes by, the front should sink further south, and by Wednesday night, may be mostly out of the region.
Wherever the front is at a given time, it will have a sharp temperature gradient. To its north, 40s will be likely and upper 30s possible, while to the south, temperatures should push well into the 50s, even at night.
South of the front, winds will be from the south and a touch blustery, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Between the two days of rain, most areas should see around an inch of rainfall. A narrow stripe across the northern Finger Lakes, near where the front will linger Tuesday, could see as much as two inches. The location of this narrow band is uncertain but should stretch west to east somewhere in the vicinity of I-90.
Cooler, but not Deep Winter
Another, weaker low will move along the front on Thursday. By this time, the temperature gradient will begin to break down, with cooler air winning out over the warmth.
However, it will be far from cold, with temperatures Thursday starting in the mid 30s and topping out near or slightly above 40 degrees. Winds on Thursday will be light from the north and northeast.
There will be plenty of clouds and some rain showers. It will not be as rainy as Tuesday or Wednesday, however.
By Friday, some snow showers will mix in with the rain showers. Precipitation on Friday should be lighter and more sporadic than on Thursday, but skies will again remain mostly to completely cloudy.
Temperatures on Friday will start around 30 degrees and top out in the mid and upper 30s. That is about ten to fifteen degrees above the average low, and five to ten degrees above the average high.
As we head into the weekend, temperatures will continue to slide downward, closer to average. Saturday will be in the mid 30s while Sunday will reach the low 30s. Both mornings will have lows ranging through the 20s.
Clouds will be likely both days. A few stray flurries will be possible, but no accumulations are expected.
Temperatures should remain in the 30s much of next week. The weather will be generally quiet, with the best chances for precipitation coming in the latter half of the week.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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