Fog, temperature swings, and late day rain as front wobbles about

finger lakes weather forecast wednesday january 4 2023 fog frontal boundary rain
Areas of morning fog and drizzle will give way to later afternoon rain as warm and cool air play tug-of-war over the FLX. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Frontal Boundary

A stalled out front lies from west to east across the middle of the Finger Lakes region this morning and will remain in the area throughout the day.

Temperatures to the south of the front are in the low and mid 50s across portions of the Southern Tier, while to the north, it is in the mid 30s near the shore of Lake Ontario.

There is no rain in the area this morning, but locally thick fog and spits of drizzle are in place. There will be little change throughout the morning hours, with fog and drizzle continuing while the warmer air makes little northward progress.

finger lakes weather 7:30 am temperature map showing warm air south and cold air to the north
The morning temperature clearly shows the front across the region. The boundary, and warmer air, should drift northward today and tonight. Click to enlarge.

During the midday and early afternoon, the fog and drizzle will diminish somewhat and the front will begin to push north. The boundary between warm and cool air will shift north as well, with 50s across roughly the southern half of the region with 40s across the northern half.

It will be a very sharp cutoff between the two air masses, and locals near the boundary may bounce between warmer and cooler air several times this afternoon.

Rain will return to the area during the mid to late afternoon. Several hours of rain are expected. A few heavier downpours are possible, and a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out. Some localized poor drainage ponding and minor small-stream flooding is possible.

During the evening hours, the temperature boundary will continue to lift north. For a brief time, at least, most areas south of I-90 should make it into the 50s. North of the Thruway, the cool air should hold on with mid 40s this evening.

The northward push and rain will be forced by an area of low pressure moving along the front. After midnight, the low will move east. Most of the precipitation will end and temperatures will begin to fall region-wide.

By Thursday morning, temperatures will range from the low 40s east of Cayuga Lake to the mid 30s west of Keuka Lake.

Temperatures will be more uniform on Thursday but will not yet turn much cooler. Most areas should end up in the mid 40s, while some upper 40s are possible from Elmira to Ithaca to Binghamton. A few places in these areas could even hit 50 degrees if some sun works its way out.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast wednesday january 4 2023 wed pm rain near 50 thursday shower mid 40s friday rain and snow upper 30s
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Cooler with lots of Clouds

For the most part, Thursday will be cloudy. A few showers will dot the region from time to time, but many areas will see little to no rain. The best chance for some sun will come in the afternoon across the Southern Tier.

Another wave of precipitation will move in late Thursday night and into Friday. With nighttime temperatures in the low 30s, much of this will fall as snow through the mid-morning hours on Friday. Some minor accumulations under an inch are possible.

Much of the precipitation will move east by Friday afternoon. As it begins to depart, it should mix with rain. A few lingering rain and snow showers will be possible Friday afternoon into Friday night. Highs will be in the upper 30s.

Some lake enhanced precipitation will be possible on Saturday, especially during the morning hours. This will fall as snow, again with only minor accumulations in localized areas. Morning lows Saturday will start around 30 and afternoon highs will reach the mid 30s. A few breaks of sun will be possible late in the day, followed by a period of mostly clear skies overnight.

This will send temperatures well into the 20s by Sunday morning. By sunrise, a new area of clouds should be pushing in from the south. Sunday will be dry, but cloudy, with highs in the mid 30s.

The weather becomes less certain on Monday. An area of low pressure will be in the vicinity, but some models keep the precipitation to our south. Others bring a mix of rain and snow in. If there is precipitation, it should remain light with little to no travel impacts.

Temperatures next week should remain in the 30s for afternoon highs with 20s during the nighttime hours. No substantial weather is currently expected, though next weekend has some hints of more active possibilities.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast wednesday january 4 2023 wed pm rain near 50 thursday shower mid 40s friday rain and snow upper 30s
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.