Warm temperatures have been no stranger to the Finger Lakes this winter, but the weather this week will probably top any recent week.
Not only will be it warm, but sunshine will continue to be a frequent companion, especially through the first part of the week.
Skies are mostly clear to start this morning, which has temperatures down into the lower half of the 20s for most areas. Southwest winds and ample sunshine will help temperatures warm in a hurry this morning.
By the afternoon, temperatures will be topping out in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees.
There will be a small area of clouds during the early to mid afternoon as a wind shift propagates through the region. This will result in a more westerly wind with a slight increase in speed.
The wind will shift again tonight as a subtle cold front moves through. Northwest winds will develop and increase to 10-15 mph through the evening hours. A few flurries will accompany the front, with some limited lake effect southeast of Lake Ontario overnight. No more than a light dusting of accumulation is expected.
By Tuesday morning, winds will be turning back to the west and southwest. Some lingering lake effect clouds may be possible early on, especially in the northeastern Finger Lakes. Morning temperatures will be in the upper 20s to near 30 degrees.
Much of Tuesday will be sunny with light west and southwest winds as high pressure passes by to the south. Temperatures will remain well above average but will probably be a couple degrees shy of today’s highs.
South winds will develop and increase Tuesday night with speeds of 10-15 mph, especially after midnight. Higher elevations may gust over 30 mph.
Wednesday will start with temperatures in the upper 30s or perhaps low 40s. A few morning rain showers will dot the area but will quickly move on, leaving at least partial sunshine. Highs will soar, breaking into the low 60s for many areas.
Wednesday will remain blustery, especially for areas west of Canandaigua Lake, where southwest winds may gust over 40 mph.
Active Late Week Weather
The surge of warm air will be driven by a strong storm system that will track through the middle of the nation and into the Upper Great Lakes.
By Thursday, this low will be north of New England and weakening, but a second system will be developing over Missouri. The Finger Lakes will be caught in the middle of these systems, with light and variable winds.
With the southerly flow cut off for the time, temperatures should be limited to the 50s, and these temperatures may not arrive until later in the day.
The chances for rain will increase late as a warm front moves into the area. A cold front will follow, though the timing of this is uncertain.
Temperatures will likely rise some Thursday evening before crashing sometime overnight or early Friday. Either way, by Friday afternoon, temperatures should be in the upper 20s and low 30s.
There will be some rain and/or snow around on Friday, but the precipitation does not look overly heavy. There is only a small chance for some minor snow accumulations late Friday and Friday night.
A larger concern may be the wind. The strength of the gusts remains a bit uncertain this far out, but there is a high chance for gusts of at least 40 mph.
At this point, it should not be a surprise that the cold air will not last. Highs for the weekend are expected to be back into the 40s with temperatures building toward a peak during the middle of next week. However, there are signs of closer-to-average temperatures and some chances for snow towards the end of the month.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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